Asian Sky Quarterly 2020Q4

EDITOR’S NOTE
For years, clever people with spreadsheets
have theorised, and then tried to model,
what the effects of a so called ‘Black Swan
Event’ would be. Whilst there is some debate
about the emergence of COVID-19 in early-
2020 being officially classified as a Black
Swan Event, there can be no doubt that its
effects on the global aviation industry were
unprecedented.
Although 2020 was a terrible year on so many levels, there were some
bright spots. One of these was the arrival of new entrants into business
aviation - people keen to benefit from the safety and security that
flying privately can bring. This is discussed in our interview with Simon
Bambridge of TAG Aviation which starts on Page 18. According to Simon,
from the mid-half of the year, there were more inquiries from first-time
buyers than the company has seen in the past seven years. This is echoed
across Asia-Pacific, with reports of first-time business aircraft flyers, as
well as buyers.
When the first virus cases appeared outside of China, countries began
closing their borders and asking their citizens and residents to return home.
The initial hit on business aviation flights departing Asia-Pacific countries
can be seen in the WingX data starting on Page 33. By April, departures
had dropped by almost 70% when compared to April 2019. However, April
was the low point, since then, the number of departures has been growing
slowly, ending the year just 3.6% down on the end of 2019. A big part of
that rebound is due to domestic flying, especially in large countries.
In China, this makes sense. The country’s robust response to the first
COVID-19 outbreak might not have won many fans in Wuhan, but it was
rapid, and more importantly, effective. China’s economy might have
contracted for the first time on record in Q1, but it bounced straight back
in Q2, finishing the year with year-on-year growth of 2.3%. This positivity
was also seen amongst respondents in our quarterly Mood and Intentions
survey on Page 14, where the 78% that said they are optimistic about the
Chinese economy is the highest number we have seen in almost four years.
As well as our usual data and analytics sections, with data and commentary
graciously provided by AMSTAT and WingX, this issue of Asian Sky
Quarterly includes an update from Yvonne Chan of Universal Weather and
Aviation on the current movement restrictions in place across Asia-Pacific,
as well as an update from Dassault on the rollout of the Falcon 6X.
Elsewhere in this issue Gordon Gardiner and James Jordon of HFW
discuss the findings from a survey that HFW ran jointly with AsBAA on
illegal charter activity, whilst AsBAA themselves give an update on its
recent activities.
We round off this issue with a spotlight feature on the Pilatus PC-24, and
an in-depth analysis of the pre-owned Gulfstream G550 market – with
additional insight kindly provided by James Hagerty of Hagerty Jet Group.
Recovery is also very much underway in the pre-owned market, as we can
see in the AMSTAT data starting from Page 41. After an early kneejerk
reaction, which saw deals put on hold indefinitely or cancelled completely,
buyers began to slowly return to the market. Much like with flight activity,
April saw the lowest point, with the March to May period seeing a 35%
drop in year-on-year transactions. However, beginning in June, pre-owned
transaction numbers surpassed the number of 2019 transactions in
every month. November stands out especially, as there were 65% more
transactions than in November 2019.
Sincerely,
Alud Davies
Media & Communications Director, Asian Sky Group
SPECIAL THANKS TO OUR CONTRIBUTORS:
2 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FOURTH QUARTER 2020