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Will Elon Musk End The<br />
Fossil Fuel Industry? by David Waterworth<br />
How responsible is Elon Musk in<br />
causing the disruption that is now<br />
evident throughout the world. In a<br />
nutshell, very much so. EVs have been<br />
around since the invention of the<br />
automobile but never have they been<br />
as desirable till the introduction of the<br />
Model S and the serious shift it created<br />
in people's imaginations.<br />
Are oil and car executives hiding<br />
their heads in the sand? (Looking for<br />
more oil reserves perhaps?) Is Musk<br />
right about the end of the fossil fuel<br />
industry? UK-based research and<br />
analysis group Rethink Energy (no<br />
affiliation with RethinkX) believes so.<br />
In a recent email from Lead Analyst<br />
Peter White, he states: “Come<br />
2027/8 the Electric Vehicle sales will<br />
overcome the rise of pandemic fossil<br />
fuel recovery and oil will get squeezed.<br />
Bankruptcy for oil follows swiftly. If<br />
total car sales do NOT recover from<br />
the pandemic (which I expect) within<br />
five years, then oil begins to falter<br />
sooner. Only one or two oil companies<br />
survive 2030, but as ailing players<br />
whose time has come. Our forecasts<br />
assume total car sales globally recover<br />
to pre-pandemic levels in 5 years, and<br />
that 2025 or 2026 oil sales get close<br />
to 2019 levels, and then fall away<br />
rapidly at a rate of 5% per annum (the<br />
pandemic was only 9.5%).”<br />
White anticipates the potential of the<br />
US EV market accelerating faster than<br />
the rest of the globe. New players<br />
like Tesla, Rivian, Fisker, and Lucid<br />
have optimistic expansion plans.<br />
Both Ford and GM are announcing<br />
new EVs regularly and are desperate<br />
to keep market share. Ford’s F-150<br />
Lightning and Mustang Mach-E are<br />
good examples where demand has<br />
outstripped production and plans have<br />
had to be frequently upgraded.<br />
Volkswagen will soon be building<br />
EVs on American soil, and Asian<br />
manufacturers are aiming to import<br />
as well (Vinfast from Vietnam is a<br />
recent example). This year’s Super<br />
Bowl had eight commercials for EVs<br />
— and they were worth watching.<br />
Automakers are collaborating with<br />
battery manufacturers, and many new<br />
factories are being built.<br />
By 2036, 100% of all cars sold in the US<br />
will be electric vehicles, and by 2037<br />
more than half of all the cars on US<br />
roads will be EVs. By 2049, all cars in<br />
the US will be zero-emission vehicles,<br />
the great bulk of them EVs.<br />
So..... Will Musk End Fossil Fuels?<br />
Yes, I think Musk will end the fossil<br />
fuel industry, or at least be one of the<br />
major destructors.<br />
24 <strong>March</strong>/<strong>April</strong> <strong>2022</strong>
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