Alien Species.vp - IUCN

Spread of biological invaders increases in general, but small amounts of money are available
for controlling invaders in prioritized areas. The landscape takes on a patchwork nature with
dense infestations of invaders in some places and none in others. The poor state of the economy
also increases pressure for subsistence farming. Blocks of homogeneous land cover change into
a patchwork of small and large land holdings.
Looking for the warning signals
An important aspect of scenarios is that they allow the participants to identify the warning
signals that indicate that a particular scenario is coming true. They can, therefore, anticipate
outcomes and take action before a particular scenario might play out. In this way the scenarios
are also less open to interpretation later on when there may be more contention about the
implications of the trends that are emerging.
In our scenarios, the most important warning signal is whether the government manages to
develop and implement the appropriate policies, laws and regulations when it has the greatest
opportunity for change, which the present. Failure to do this will activate the driving forces
which will encourage a future in which a weak regulatory environment becomes a dominant
force. Because of the nature of biological invasion, where the problem gets worse the longer
nothing is done, the lack of sufficient laws, policies and regulations will be especially
invidious. The current laws and regulations vis à vis biological invaders should be revisited in
the context of all driving forces and not just the particular species.
Curve balls
There may be some driving forces that can not be identified at this stage and we also cannot be
certain about whether they will become dominant or not. An example that is very recent on the
scene is the carbon sequestration (or carbon banking) policy which allows some countries to
maintain carbon outputs while funding other countries to afforest significant areas to create an
equivalent carbon sink. Afforestation is a significant driving force of biological invasion in
South Africa. This policy could become a threat in the New Mosaic or Green Desert scenarios
where the financial attraction is great in a poorly performing economy.
Alternative scenario names
One of the characteristic scenarios is called the “Official Future”; this involves a set of implicit
assumptions which underlies most institutional policies that say things will work out tomorrow
– all that has to happen is that the right people put their policies into effect, or that current
policies are acceptable and all that needs to be done is implement them (Schwartz, 1991). The
Official Future is often the propaganda line of government and bureaucracies, but it represents
a significant danger because it precludes actions that could have important impacts at the later
crucial stages (Schwartz, 1991). In this case Garden Of Eden would be the Official Future
scenario but it remains to be seen whether the government will put the necessary investments
into managing biological invasions. Likewise there is also the scenario “Worst Nightmare”.
This would mostly be equivalent to Green Desert.
Conclusions and recommendations
In South Africa, policies, laws and regulations that are coherent and arise out of a single piece
of law such as an act of parliament, will be one of the strongest contributors to having an impact
on biological invaders. However, it is critical that politicians and society support the spirit and
objectives of these laws. If they do not, it will be virtually impossible to implement those laws
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Human dimensions of invasive alien species