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128 ADVANCES IN ELECTRONICS AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS, VOL. 1, NO. 1, APRIL 2010<br />

C. The ICT trends<br />

The two meta-trends of personalization <strong>and</strong> distribution<br />

can be comb<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> various ways to form the trends of<br />

ICT technologies, which accord<strong>in</strong>g to the DNA metaphor<br />

correspond to the bases, the sequence of which identifies the<br />

genetic code.<br />

The follow<strong>in</strong>g is our elected list of ten trends: Ideal performance,<br />

Ubiquity, Flexibility, Complexity, Cognitivity, Opportunism,<br />

Cooperation, Security, M<strong>in</strong>iaturization, Convergence.<br />

In the follow<strong>in</strong>g we analyze them <strong>in</strong> detail.<br />

1) The ideal performance trend: The search for the ultimate<br />

ideal performance is the major force beh<strong>in</strong>d the evolution<br />

of any technical or technological system. It appears to be<br />

<strong>in</strong> the nature of the human k<strong>in</strong>d to strive for the extraction<br />

of the maximum possible output, the optimal exploitation of<br />

resources, with the largest possible efficiency. This requires<br />

knowledge of the ultimate performance boundaries. In the case<br />

of communications, the boundaries are the object of Information<br />

<strong>and</strong> Communication theories, which <strong>in</strong> many <strong>in</strong>stances<br />

do <strong>in</strong>dicate where these limits are. The trend is therefore<br />

towards achiev<strong>in</strong>g the performance limits set by Information<br />

Theory. How does this l<strong>in</strong>k to the two meta-trends? The<br />

optimization of performance requires perfect fit to the specific<br />

communication conditions (propagation <strong>channel</strong>, <strong>in</strong>terference,<br />

transmission format, etcetera), which can be <strong>in</strong>terpreted as<br />

match<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>dividual user needs <strong>and</strong> constra<strong>in</strong>ts. This is<br />

part of personalization. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, the limits set by<br />

Information Theory are not restricted to a s<strong>in</strong>gle l<strong>in</strong>k, but<br />

can <strong>and</strong> should be extended to the more complex case of<br />

networks. In this case, achiev<strong>in</strong>g the optimal limits requires<br />

global optimization, to balance fairness <strong>and</strong> overall throughput,<br />

with distributed <strong>in</strong>telligence. This is evidently part of the<br />

distribution meta-trend.<br />

2) The ubiquity trend: The trend towards ubiquitous communications,<br />

the overused ”Anywhere, anytime” motto, has<br />

been the driver for the evolution of cellular communications<br />

s<strong>in</strong>ce the 70’s. Coverage is today extremely good <strong>in</strong> most urban<br />

areas, <strong>and</strong> surpris<strong>in</strong>gly good <strong>in</strong> unexpected locations, even<br />

though obviously gaps rema<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g parts of the world.<br />

What is yet necessary is to sharply <strong>in</strong>crease the geographic<br />

spectral efficiency (<strong>in</strong> bit/s/Hz/km 2 ), to provide ubiquitous<br />

broadb<strong>and</strong> wireless access. Associated to ubiquity, we f<strong>in</strong>d<br />

mobility <strong>and</strong> pervasiveness. Mobility is the trend towards communication<br />

systems which can <strong>in</strong>terconnect term<strong>in</strong>als mov<strong>in</strong>g<br />

at any speed, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g all types of vehicles, tra<strong>in</strong>s, airplanes,<br />

ships. Pervasiveness is the trends towards f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g connectivity<br />

all around us, <strong>in</strong> a truly wireless ambient. Even power supplies<br />

can become wireless, with free charg<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts distributed is<br />

strategic locations. This all adds to the trend towards “liv<strong>in</strong>g<br />

without cables”.<br />

Smart cities [8] are a consequence of this trend, address<strong>in</strong>g<br />

ubiquitous connectivity with<strong>in</strong> a city <strong>in</strong>tended as an IT-district,<br />

towards the concept of the Internet of Citizens. This concept<br />

has many important social implications. Essentially, by liv<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>in</strong>to a collaborative wireless ambient, the <strong>in</strong>dividual can benefit<br />

from optimized environmental fitness, which satisfies a basic<br />

human need. This is clearly a specification of the personalization<br />

meta-trend. At the same time, this personal fitness<br />

can be carried along <strong>in</strong> any location, becom<strong>in</strong>g ubiquitous<br />

fitness, an evident derivation from the distribution meta-trend.<br />

Even though ubiquity <strong>and</strong> distribution may seem very similar<br />

concepts, we separate them by limit<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>terpretation of<br />

ubiquity to the pervasiveness of wireless networks, <strong>and</strong> by<br />

attribut<strong>in</strong>g to distribution this <strong>and</strong> all other implications related<br />

to social aspects, work organization, global economy, etcetera.<br />

3) The flexibility trend: Along with the search for Ideal<br />

Performance, this is also a major trend <strong>in</strong> the evolution of any<br />

technical system. All eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g systems start as rather simple<br />

<strong>and</strong> rigid, perform<strong>in</strong>g but a few functions, with limited scope<br />

for modifications <strong>in</strong> response to user needs. In the course of its<br />

development, the system acquires more <strong>and</strong> more functions,<br />

more <strong>and</strong> more options, which can be selected flexibly depend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

on <strong>in</strong>stantaneous necessities. This is a very strong trend<br />

<strong>in</strong> wireless communications. Transmission systems, protocols,<br />

<strong>and</strong> term<strong>in</strong>als are be<strong>in</strong>g designed as reconfigurable entities,<br />

with capabilities that can be flexibly adapted to the conditions<br />

set by the propagation <strong>channel</strong>s, the transmission buffers, the<br />

spectrum availability, the <strong>in</strong>terference environment, the desired<br />

quality of service, etcetera. Dynamic spectrum assignment<br />

strategies are be<strong>in</strong>g devised <strong>and</strong> start<strong>in</strong>g to f<strong>in</strong>d their way<br />

<strong>in</strong>to regulatory policies. Digital electronics capabilities are<br />

exploited to design software radios <strong>and</strong> flexible radios. Even<br />

analog electronics is now be<strong>in</strong>g bent to the requirements<br />

of design<strong>in</strong>g flexible Radio-Frequency (RF) front-ends, with<br />

reconfigurable filters over large b<strong>and</strong>widths. It is an easy<br />

task to map the trend towards flexibility as a direct son<br />

of the personalization meta-trend. In fact, it is obvious that<br />

flexibility is only useful if it is used to accommodate <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />

conditions <strong>and</strong> needs. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, it may be harder<br />

to describe the connection with the distribution meta-trend.<br />

However, flexibility at system level requires knowledge of all<br />

local conditions, <strong>in</strong> order to f<strong>in</strong>d a global optimum satisfy<strong>in</strong>g<br />

the requirements of the entire user population. Therefore,<br />

we can say that global flexibility is related to the trends<br />

towards distribution of <strong>in</strong>telligence, where as a m<strong>in</strong>imum<br />

each user must sense its own environment <strong>and</strong> feed back this<br />

<strong>in</strong>formation to peers or to base stations. Also, the trend towards<br />

flexible network topologies is clearly out-sp<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g from the<br />

distribution meta-trend.<br />

4) The complexity trend: Technical systems always evolve<br />

towards <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g levels of complexity, as functionalities <strong>in</strong>crease<br />

<strong>and</strong> performance improves. On the other h<strong>and</strong>, technological<br />

complexity can become a major hurdle <strong>in</strong> its usability.<br />

Therefore, while <strong>in</strong>ternal complexity <strong>in</strong>creases monotonously,<br />

there is a contextual trend towards the simplification of the<br />

human-to-mach<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong>terface. Complexity <strong>and</strong> simplicity must<br />

live together <strong>in</strong> harmony. As complexity grows, we must face<br />

the danger of <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g energy consumption, which could<br />

make entire systems unsusta<strong>in</strong>able. A clear trend towards the<br />

design of “green” technical systems is grow<strong>in</strong>g powerfully<br />

nowadays [3]: we could say that energy consumption is to<br />

complexity as energy sav<strong>in</strong>g is to simplicity. The long-term<br />

susta<strong>in</strong>ability of human activities will be one of the paramount<br />

technological challenges of the 21st century. S<strong>in</strong>ce the data<br />

traffic <strong>in</strong> communication networks is exponentially <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g,<br />

energy-efficient communication techniques are needed for as-

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