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32 This perception is reinforced by the fact that the bulk of the ADF’s operational activities since World War 2 (peace and stability, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and border protection activities) have been predominantly high likelihood contingencies which have had typically low consequences for Australia’s direct national security and sovereignty. However, to argue that the calibration of Defence’s preparedness posture should be based on these largely consistent operational trends spanning over half a century is likely to be flawed. Such a contention risks exposure to what Guttentag & Herring (1986) and Cornand & Gimet (2012) describe as ‘disaster myopia’: a tendency for individuals and organisations to discount certain risks, especially regarding improbable yet potentially catastrophic events, during periods of optimism and stability. As major operations conclude, Defence and the Government more broadly should be careful not to succumb to ‘disaster myopia’ regarding preparedness for a self-reliant defence of Australia campaign. Indeed, ignoring Defence’s ‘black swan’ exposes the nation to a significantly increased risk of possibly catastrophic consequence. Lyon’s (2012) ‘Asian alternative’ futures model (Figure 2) illustrates a spectrum of potentialities facing Australia in the Asia-Pacific century. It identifies a ‘coopetitive Asia’, which he explains is ‘the Asia that’s simultaneously cooperative and competitive’ (2012, p. 30), as the most likely future scenario. Moreover, to either side of his designated ‘high point’, Lyon identifies two contrasting future extremes. To the left, he identifies an increasingly cooperative Asian future which, at its extremes, he describes as an ‘Asian concert’. However, the further right one moves through Lyon’s model, an increasingly competitive Asian future leads to a ‘combative Asia’ scenario. Likelihood More cooperative Secure, liberal, prosperous Asia "Upstream shaping" 1SD Coopetitive Asia = starting point Insecure, illiberal, poor Asia "Downstream hedging" More competitive Asian concert Cooperative Asia Competitive Asia Combative Asia Australian policy arc 1SD Figure 2: An ‘Asian alternative’ futures model (Source: Lyon 2012, p. 30)
Both the extreme left (Asian concert) and extreme right (combative Asia) of Lyon’s model are low likelihood scenarios. As he asserts: Although the graph shows both the ‘Asia of concerts’ and the ‘Asia of war’ as ‘definite line’ events, they would really be more ‘emergent conditions’. However, both are still best seen as relatively low-likelihood scenarios—closer to two standard deviations from the current environment than one (Lyon 2012, p. 30). Lyon goes on to assert that Australia’s policy setting should broadly calibrate around the arc of greatest likelihood, with the inbuilt adaptability to ‘downstream hedge’ should the regional environment become more competitive or ‘upstream shape’ should it become more cooperative (Lyon 2012, p. 31). Figure 3 broadly transposes Lyon’s model at Figure 2 over Figure 1. If it is accepted that regional dynamics are more likely to ebb and flow within the broad ‘coopetitive Asia’ scenarios, Defence’s preparedness activities should strategically hedge the risks associated with a ‘combative Asia’ scenario, in which a defence of Australia campaign is necessary, while simultaneously ensuring the ADF has the capabilities and capacities to contribute to any future encompassing the ‘coopetitive Asia’ to ‘Asian concert’ set of scenarios. Combative Asia Consequence Asian Concert Australia’s Defence ‘black swan’ Coopetitive Asia Likelihood Figure 3: Defence’s ‘black swan’ and Lyon’s ‘Asian alternative’ futures model Defence funding will always be fiscally austere during strategically benign periods. As such, it is the combination of fiscal austerity and growing strategic uncertainty which underscores the necessity of the risk-based approach that adopts a defence of Australia campaign as the foundation for Defence’s preparedness and mobilisation principles. In this context, Defence preparedness aims to understand the ends military strategy seeks to achieve, and provide the framework for the operationalisation of the ways and means to achieve those objectives. 33
Page 1 and 2: Australia’s Maritime Strategy Vic
Page 3: CONTENTS Australian Defence Force I
Page 6 and 7: 4 As usual, we have a selection of
Page 8 and 9: 6 Figure 1: South-east Asia Soverei
Page 10 and 11: 8 does this mean for a maritime str
Page 12 and 13: 10 Vice Admiral Griggs joined the R
Page 14 and 15: 12 As you have all undoubtedly obse
Page 16 and 17: 14 the word ‘choice’. Does anyo
Page 18 and 19: 16 to the school inspired by the Pr
Page 20 and 21: 18 He was the Commanding Officer of
Page 22 and 23: 20 Continental versus maritime stra
Page 24 and 25: 22 MacArthur’s island-hopping cam
Page 26 and 27: 24 As we look into the future, chan
Page 28 and 29: 26 We proved the effectiveness of t
Page 30 and 31: 28 Hornets from 75 Squadron. Our re
Page 32 and 33: 30 Reframing the Defence Discourse:
Page 36 and 37: 34 However, the exact nature of a d
Page 38 and 39: 36 Capability Joint Force-In- Being
Page 40 and 41: 38 or problems in capability develo
Page 42 and 43: 40 The budget debate: contextualisi
Page 44 and 45: 42 will mean that Defence may only
Page 46 and 47: 44 Counterinsurgency Lessons from t
Page 48 and 49: 46 only in a selective sense. They
Page 50 and 51: 48 Although there were miscalculati
Page 52 and 53: 50 For these tribal societies, the
Page 54 and 55: 52 10. Effendi, ‘Military Operati
Page 56 and 57: 54 An overview of strategic air pow
Page 58 and 59: 56 control, oil industry and electr
Page 60 and 61: 58 basis, the effectiveness of atte
Page 62 and 63: 60 31. T.M. Biddle, ‘Chapter 25 -
Page 64 and 65: 62 The US Submarine Campaign in the
Page 66 and 67: 64 The submarines were a mix of cla
Page 68 and 69: 66 based on sound bearings. Similar
Page 70 and 71: 68 Wolf packs. Early in hostilities
Page 72 and 73: 70 As Figure 4 shows, the submarine
Page 74 and 75: 72 NOTES 1. This article is an edit
Page 76 and 77: 74 33. Samuel Morrison, History of
Page 78 and 79: 76 Sea Control in Amphibious Operat
Page 80 and 81: 78 operations with some level of se
Page 82 and 83: 80 The forces of a major Asia-Pacif
Page 84 and 85:
82 20. This is based on the Governm
Page 86 and 87:
84 Coal 22 % Natural Gas 18 % Nucle
Page 88 and 89:
86 Japan has also worked hard to di
Page 90 and 91:
88 The most significant impediment
Page 92 and 93:
90 Other environmental and economic
Page 94 and 95:
92 NOTES 1. This is an abridged ver
Page 96 and 97:
94 45. ‘Last Japan nuclear reacto
Page 98 and 99:
96 This doctrine is an indicator of
Page 100 and 101:
98 addressing the challenges of the
Page 102 and 103:
100 contemporary strategic environm
Page 104 and 105:
102 11. D. Showater, ‘Prussian-Ge
Page 106 and 107:
104 Refocusing the Australia-PNG Re
Page 108 and 109:
106 and effort. Particularly within
Page 110 and 111:
108 as support to PNGDF operations,
Page 112 and 113:
110 NOTES 1. Comments by the newly-
Page 114 and 115:
112 Operating in a Degraded Informa
Page 116 and 117:
114 This increased reliance has exc
Page 118 and 119:
116 At the tactical level, there ar
Page 120 and 121:
118 2015. One year later, he advanc
Page 122 and 123:
120 Book reviews In Business and Ba
Page 124 and 125:
122 Starting with the Portuguese at
Page 126 and 127:
124 Dogfight: the Battle of Britain
Page 128 and 129:
126 Masters’ heartening conclusio
Page 130 and 131:
128 The impending centenary of the
Page 132 and 133:
130 highest level, and early German
Page 134 and 135:
132 Overall, the reader is left wit
Page 136 and 137:
134 It is a very personal history,
Page 138:
GUIDANCE FOR AUTHORS The Australian
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