Annual Report and Accounts 2009 - BG Group
Annual Report and Accounts 2009 - BG Group
Annual Report and Accounts 2009 - BG Group
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Commodity prices<br />
Principal risks <strong>and</strong> uncertainties<br />
<strong>BG</strong> <strong>Group</strong>’s cash flows <strong>and</strong> profitability are sensitive to natural gas,<br />
crude oil <strong>and</strong> liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices (<strong>and</strong> related price<br />
spreads) which are dependent on a number of factors that have an<br />
impact on world supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong>. The <strong>Group</strong>’s exposure to<br />
commodity prices also varies according to a number of other factors,<br />
including the mix of production <strong>and</strong> sales. The <strong>Group</strong> estimates that,<br />
other factors being constant, a $1.00 rise (or fall) in oil prices would<br />
increase (or decrease) operating profit in the <strong>Group</strong>’s Exploration <strong>and</strong><br />
Production (E&P) business in 2010 by approximately $90 million to<br />
$110 million.<br />
Rapid movement in commodity prices has led to sales prices becoming<br />
disconnected from costs in recent years, especially as falls in industry<br />
costs (for materials, goods <strong>and</strong> services from industry suppliers <strong>and</strong><br />
manufacturers) can lag behind falls in commodity prices. This puts<br />
pressure on investment <strong>and</strong> project economics that depend in part upon<br />
the degree <strong>and</strong> timing of commitments to particular cost structures.<br />
Operational performance<br />
Principal risks <strong>and</strong> uncertainties<br />
<strong>BG</strong> <strong>Group</strong>’s production volumes (<strong>and</strong> therefore revenues) are dependent<br />
on the continued operational performance of its producing assets. The<br />
<strong>Group</strong>’s producing assets are subject to a number of operational risks<br />
including: reduced availability of those assets due to planned activities<br />
such as maintenance or shutdowns; unplanned outages which may, for<br />
example, be due to equipment or human failure; asset integrity <strong>and</strong><br />
health, safety, security <strong>and</strong> environmental (HSSE) incidents; adverse<br />
reserves recovery from the field; the performance of joint venture<br />
partners; the performance of our contractors; <strong>and</strong> exposure to natural<br />
hazards, such as extreme weather events.<br />
Reserves development <strong>and</strong> project delivery<br />
Principal risks <strong>and</strong> uncertainties<br />
The <strong>Group</strong>’s ability to deliver production growth could be affected<br />
by a number of factors, including: reservoir quality <strong>and</strong> performance;<br />
inaccurate interpretation of received data; unexpected drilling<br />
conditions or costs; rig availability; or inadequate human or technical<br />
resources. During the pre-sanction phase, projects are subject to a<br />
number of sub-surface, engineering, stakeholder, financial, macroeconomic,<br />
commercial, legal <strong>and</strong> regulatory risks. Principal risks prior<br />
to sanction include failure to fully appreciate sub-surface, project<br />
schedule <strong>and</strong> cost uncertainties. Failure to select the most suitable<br />
development concept, based on a full lifecycle underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the<br />
project, can expose projects to additional risk <strong>and</strong> cost. Subsequent<br />
delivery of projects may be subject to cost <strong>and</strong> time overruns; HSSE<br />
risks; technical, commercial, legal or regulatory compliance failures;<br />
equipment shortages; the availability, competence <strong>and</strong> capability of<br />
human resources <strong>and</strong> contractors; unscheduled outages; mechanical<br />
<strong>and</strong> technical difficulties; <strong>and</strong> gas pipeline system constraints. In many<br />
cases, the cause of delay or cost overrun in project implementation can<br />
be the misalignment of partner objectives. Political factors can also<br />
often be a significant risk to project delivery. The <strong>Group</strong>’s move into<br />
unconventional gas (such as shale <strong>and</strong> coal seam gas), operating in<br />
deep water carbonate reservoirs, <strong>and</strong> the inherent complexity of some<br />
projects, given their scale <strong>and</strong> the number <strong>and</strong> range of stakeholders,<br />
all present further challenges to successful project delivery.<br />
Commentary<br />
The <strong>Group</strong>’s sensitivity to oil prices is set to increase due to the<br />
contribution of significant amounts of oil-related revenue, notably<br />
from Brazil. However, the <strong>Group</strong>’s portfolio also includes a range of<br />
long-term gas contracts that are not directly or immediately linked<br />
to short-term changes in commodity prices. Additionally, some LNG<br />
purchase contracts contain provisions under which the gas suppliers<br />
share price risk with <strong>BG</strong> <strong>Group</strong>. The <strong>Group</strong> does not, as a matter of<br />
course, hedge all commodity prices, but may hedge certain LNG<br />
contracts <strong>and</strong> other revenue streams from time to time. In marketing<br />
its gas supply portfolio, the <strong>Group</strong> undertakes commodity hedging <strong>and</strong><br />
trading activities, including the use of natural gas futures contracts,<br />
financial <strong>and</strong> physical forward-based contracts <strong>and</strong> swap contracts.<br />
Projects are screened against a wide range of external sensitivities,<br />
including benchmark commodity prices.<br />
Commentary<br />
The <strong>Group</strong> has m<strong>and</strong>atory policies <strong>and</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ards governing all aspects<br />
of operation, including HSSE <strong>and</strong> asset integrity. These are supported<br />
by assurance processes which are supervised by the <strong>Group</strong>’s technical<br />
functions <strong>and</strong> are applied globally.<br />
Commentary<br />
Development planning <strong>and</strong> project delivery are subject to internal<br />
assurance processes to optimise designs <strong>and</strong> minimise risk. Due<br />
diligence prior to the final investment decision includes scrutiny of<br />
feasibility studies, concept selection <strong>and</strong> definition, project planning,<br />
commercialisation options <strong>and</strong> project economics. Projects are<br />
screened against a wide range of external sensitivities, including<br />
stakeholder issues (such as issues relating to partner alignment),<br />
commodity prices <strong>and</strong> input costs.<br />
The <strong>Group</strong> has an ongoing programme focused on ensuring optimal<br />
project management, clear accountabilities for delivery <strong>and</strong> the best<br />
possible deployment of project management capability across the<br />
portfolio. Performance is assured against <strong>Group</strong>-wide m<strong>and</strong>atory<br />
technical st<strong>and</strong>ards <strong>and</strong> strict capital <strong>and</strong> cost discipline is applied to<br />
protect value. The <strong>Group</strong> seeks to ensure that effective stakeholder<br />
alignment enables an adequate degree of control during project<br />
construction <strong>and</strong> operation.<br />
<strong>BG</strong> <strong>Group</strong> <strong>Annual</strong> <strong>Report</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Accounts</strong> <strong>2009</strong><br />
31<br />
Directors’ <strong>Report</strong><br />
Business Review<br />
Directors’ <strong>Report</strong><br />
Corporate Governance<br />
Financial<br />
Statements<br />
Shareholder<br />
Information