Residential Foreclosures in the City of Buffalo, 1990-2000 - Federal ...

By separating out transitioning census tracts, we can compare foreclosure rates
between stable minority and stable white tracts. Stable minority tracts demonstrate a
somewhat higher rate of foreclosure than their white counterparts, 0.54 percent as
opposed to 0.38 percent. However, the rate of stable minority tracts is only about half the
rate of tracts that changed from white to minority. Clearly, it is the census tracts that are
transitioning from white to minority that are experiencing the greatest incidence and rate
of foreclosure.
We then test how the rate of transition correlates with foreclosure. In Table 5, we
calculate foreclosure rates based on the rate of minority population increase from 1990 to
2000. As might be expected, the foreclosure rate is clearly the highest in tracts that
experienced more than a 20 percent rise in minority population. However, it is worth
noting that there is little difference in the rates between tracts that had a small increase in
minority population and those that had no significant change. This finding suggests that,
as in the case of income, there may be a tipping point beyond which the correlation
between minority change and foreclosure becomes significant. It appears that rapid
minority change is the important factor in the association with foreclosure.
Income and Minority Status Combined
Chart 5 depicts the association between foreclosure and combined income and minority
status. Using the same definitions as we did earlier, we divide Buffalo’s census tracts into
four socioeconomic categories based on their minority population and median household
income in 2000 and calculate foreclosure rates for these groupings. Foreclosures are
clearly most likely to occur in higher income minority census tracts. These
neighborhoods are likely to provide some of the region’s better homeownership
opportunities for low- and moderate-income minorities.
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