Residential Foreclosures in the City of Buffalo, 1990-2000 - Federal ...

Chapter 7: Conclusion and Implications
In this study, we have analyzed a broad range of characteristics potentially associated
with foreclosures in Buffalo over the 1990-2000 period. Although these characteristics
could be associated with foreclosures in a number of ways, we did not assess the nature
of those relationships. But while we did not attempt to determine the causes of the rise in
foreclosures, our investigation sheds light on the context in which they occurred.
Overall, Buffalo has experienced a significant rise in residential foreclosures
during the study period. The increase took place in an environment of slow growth but
absent any significant negative economic stimulus. However, the city continued to house
a disproportionate share of the metro area’s poor. At a time when foreclosures are rising
nationwide, it is not surprising that the effect would be more noticeable in the region’s
central city. Evidence suggests that the process itself disproportionately affects low- and
moderate-income homeowners because they lack the resources both to avert default
during difficult economic times and to halt the foreclosure process once it has begun.
Such homeowners clearly represent a considerable portion of the Buffalo housing market.
In addition, it is clear that the growth in foreclosures is widespread and that the
factors behind it are complex. The incidence of foreclosure is up significantly in all
Buffalo communities, and the largest increases are found in those communities with
relatively few foreclosures in 1990. But while foreclosures are up across the city, they
have maintained a consistent spatial pattern, tending to concentrate in a concentric ring
around the city’s periphery. This spatial distribution appears to be associated with the
socioeconomic and housing characteristics of Buffalo’s neighborhoods, which in turn
have followed generally observed patterns of urban transformation.
Neighborhoods
A central finding of our study is that foreclosures were most concentrated in Buffalo’s
higher income minority neighborhoods. But above all, this phenomenon appears to be
tied to patterns of urban change. For decades, the minority population in Buffalo has been
migrating outward from the inner city, generally moving to newer, better conditioned
housing in adjacent neighborhoods. The neighborhoods at the peak of this transition—
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