English - Global Environment Facility

5. In summary, the incremental reasoning is based on the significant improvements the GEF project
will bring about in terms of planning and controlling ecotourism services in PAs and monitoring
their impacts on biodiversity values in key units of the SINAP. Overall, the project will
contribute to remove or attenuate the main barriers to mainstreaming biodiversity into the
ecotourism sector. This progress would not be possible under the baseline scenario or would be
extremely slow. These advances will allow the project to effectively contribute to improved
conservation of global biodiversity values through improved management effectiveness of PAs
and increased financial sustainability, while providing increased economic opportunities around
PAs.
G. INDICATE RISKS, INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS, THAT MIGHT PREVENT THE PROJECT
OBJECTIVE(S) FROM BEING ACHIEVED AND OUTLINE RISK MANAGEMENT MEASURES:
1. Limited inter-institutional coordination for ecotourism management both at the national and
local level - The proposed program will address this potential risk by ensuring that both ANAM
and ATP continue to work jointly together as they have throughout the preparation of this
project, and that a shared strategy is reached. This will involve not only the formulation and
establishment of a common coordination mechanism and regulatory framework to strengthen the
cooperation between governmental agencies (national and local), but also establish mechanisms
for financial sustainability that will consolidate local and national partnerships for ecotourism
management in the SINAP.
2. Lack of specific financing to support private sector involvement in the project – Expectations
exist for parallel financing of private ecotourism initiatives either on the part of local businesses
or communities, and this could represent a risk to the project if expectations are unmet. This risk
is mitigated by activities in components 2 and 3 of the program, particularly the improvements in
„public goods‟ in PAs (trails, observation towers, etc.) upon which private initiatives are
dependent, the allocation of new concessions or co-management arrangements which will open
local income generating opportunities and the development of business plans for the PAs. The
private sector and local community-based enterprises will also benefit directly from capacity
building to improve their services to meet the quality standards of international ecotourism
markets.
3. The climate change risk assessment carried out by ANAM’s Climate Change and Desertification
Unit and the specific data for PAs show that risks associated with climate change factors such as
increased storm and hurricane events, sea level rise, increase in occurrence and severity of
drought episodes, and invasive species proliferation are low to moderate in the 9 PAs. However,
ocean warming and coral bleaching constitute higher risks in marine PAs such as Bastimentos
Island in the Caribbean and Coiba Island in the Pacific. Scientists at the Smithsonian Tropical
Research Institute (STRI) in Panama recently documented an extensive bleaching event affecting
the entire Caribbean coast of Panama from Kuna-Yala to Bocas del Toro (where Bastimentos
Island is located). 9 Coral mortality was limited to shallow areas. A similar event in 2005 in the
wider Caribbean included intense bleaching in Panama. However, mortality was less than 12% in
this zone and reefs were reported to be relatively resilient. In experts‟ opinion, the hurricane
season may be enhancing the current problem, resulting in low water circulation in the
9 http://smithsonianscience.org/2010/10/coral-bleaching-event-caused-by-warming-ocean
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