The tenth IMSC, Beijing, China, 2007 - International Meetings on ...

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<strong>The</strong> study of the Urban Heat Island in Nanjing city Gu Lihua Nanjing university of information science and technology lihuamm820@sohu.com Qiu Xinfa Nanjing university of information science and technology <strong>The</strong> urban heat island (UHI) intensity in Nanjing, has been particularity investigated using the temperature data measured at three urban and one suburb station form 1960 to 2005, including annual, mensal, day-by-day temperature of average, highest, lowest, and four times(02:00, 08:00 , 14:00, 20:00) a day. <strong>The</strong> thesis adopts three sorts UHI statistical methods to analyze the character of the UHI. <strong>The</strong> conclusion can be drawn as following: (1) <strong>The</strong> UHI intensity boosts up with the developing of city, and also gives more prominent presentation on annual lowest temperature than on annual highest temperature and annual average temperature. (2)<strong>The</strong> seasonal variety of UHI intensity is obvious: strong in spring, weak in autumn and winter. (3) <strong>The</strong> UHI intensity in Nanjing is lower than other large city, the peak value is between 0 and 3 . When the daily temperature is lowest, the UHI intensity is stronger. (4) <strong>The</strong> temperature of four times reflects an obvious day and night variety of UHI intensity with the maximum intensity appears at 02:00 and the minimum at 14:00. (5)<strong>The</strong> UHI intensity exponent increases holistically reduce in 1960s, arrive at lowest in 1970s, increases again form 1975. “Attribution of changes in extreme weather risk: a study of the European Summer 2003 Heatwave” Helen Hanlon AOPP, University of Oxford hanlon@atm.ox.ac.uk Myles Allen AOPP, University of Oxford Daithi Stone AOPP, University of Oxford Peter Stott Hadley Centre, UK Met Office Alberto Troccoli European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading In 2003 the average summer temperature in continental Europe exceeded the 1961-1990 European summer mean by 2.3K. Many regions experienced a large number of deaths due to 115
the elevated temperatures, and attribution studies have determined that human activity have at least doubled the risk of such a heatwave compared to pre-industrial times. However, other, non-linear processes could also have amplified summer 2003 temperatures: feedbacks between reduced cloud cover and precipitation and reduced soil-moisture may have prevented the usual convective disruption of the high pressure system. This study will build on previous attribution work by attempting to further isolate the change in risk of the heatwave due to anthropogenic influences. A large ensemble of the ECMWF IFS model will be performed at higher resolution than previous studies, with improved simulation of land surface processes. Seasonal Rainfall Prediction for the Tropical Pacific Region Luke He CPC/NCEP/NOAA Luke.He@noaa.gov Joshua Fu <strong>International</strong> Pacific Research Center Nicole Colasacco Pacific ENSO Application Center Tony Barnston <strong>International</strong> Research Institute for Climate and Society Research has shown that short term global climate fluctuations, such as those related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, play a dominant role in the climate variability in the tropical Pacific region. Because the demand for climate information in the tropical Pacific region has risen in the last decade, the PEAC (Pacific ENSO Application Center) Climate Teleconference and the Southern Pacific Island Climate Teleconference have been held monthly to support the decision making processes undertaken in the tropical Pacific region for water resource management, fisheries management, agriculture, natural disaster mitigation strategies, and other climate sensitive sectors. <strong>The</strong> climate teleconferences also set up a bridge to exchange the climate information for the scientists from US, Australia, New Zealand, and Pacific island nations. Both dynamic and statistical forecasting tools are examined for the seasonal rainfall forecast for the tropical Pacific region in the climate teleconferences. An objectively consolidated seasonal rainfall forecast scheme for the tropical Pacific region is developed recently through the support of the NOAA PRIDE (Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise) project. <strong>The</strong> future plan and opportunities, e.g., NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) and Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS), for improving the climate prediction skill for the tropical Pacific region will also be discussed. 116
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1Oth International
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Preface It is truly a great pleasur
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Speaker: Dan Cooley................
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Speaker: Qian Li ..................
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Speaker: Ediang Okuku Archibong....
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Speaker: Yi Wang...................
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Climatological Dataset.............
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Bridging the gap between simulated
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Invited Session: Spatial patterns o
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Joint Program on the Science and Po
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e to adopt a different calibrated l
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those retained, and [iii] performan
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A range of existing statistical app
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palaeo-environmental data from sout
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Whilst it has been noted that such
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State Key Laboratory of Numerical M
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address new policies for changing c
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and show promise for analyzing tren
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1901-2005 with complete data of all
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Homogenization of daily meteorologi
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as Homogen Data, Gap, Index, Statis
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Penalized maximal t-test for detect
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Iran,Tehran, Azad university, Resea
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We present applications of several
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A 50-member ensemble is produced wi
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ichard@stats.ucl.ac.uk Nadja Leith
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Answering questions about empirical
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In a series of climate change impac
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climatological annual frequency of
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Detection of urban warming in recen
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Detection of Human Influence on pan
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Extending attribution studies: post
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Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hege
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1, In the middle-pattern of El Niñ
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convergence zone (ITCZ). Th
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stationary waves occur in mid-latit
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A multiple surrogate data study of
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Linear and non-linear reconstructio
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Pseudo-proxy tests of the regulariz
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Parallel Sessions:Regional Studies
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Page 92 and 93: The Roles of Ensem
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Page 96 and 97: Empirical probabilistic seasonal fo
Page 98 and 99: Rajesh J. Department of Atmospheric
Page 100 and 101: Andrew Moore Uni. of California at
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Page 104 and 105: data can ever be generated. In fact
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Page 124 and 125: the regional climate change is repr
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Page 134 and 135: Development and analysis of a daily
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Page 138 and 139: Rescue of historical climate data:
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Page 142 and 143: Kulkarni Ashwini, Sabade S S and Kr
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Page 146 and 147: Richard E. Chandler University Coll
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Page 152 and 153: dmanatsa@buse.ac.zw Wisemen Chingom
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Page 158 and 159: ari@ludens.elte.hu J. Bartholy Dept
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Page 174 and 175: Impact of Urban Expansion on Region
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