The tenth IMSC, Beijing, China, 2007 - International Meetings on ...

the elevated temperatures, and attribution studies have determined that human activity have at
least doubled the risk of such a heatwave compared to pre-industrial times. However, other,
non-linear processes could also have amplified summer 2003 temperatures: feedbacks
between reduced cloud cover and precipitation and reduced soil-moisture may have prevented
the usual convective disruption of the high pressure system. This study will build on previous
attribution work by attempting to further isolate the change in risk of the heatwave due to
anthropogenic influences. A large ensemble of the ECMWF IFS model will be performed at
higher resolution than previous studies, with improved simulation of land surface processes.
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction for the Tropical Pacific Region
Luke He
CPC/NCEP/NOAA
Luke.He@noaa.gov
Joshua Fu
<strong>International</strong> Pacific Research Center
Nicole Colasacco
Pacific ENSO Application Center
Tony Barnston
<strong>International</strong> Research Institute for Climate and Society
Research has shown that short term global climate fluctuations, such as those related to
the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, play a dominant role in the climate
variability in the tropical Pacific region. Because the demand for climate information in the
tropical Pacific region has risen in the last decade, the PEAC (Pacific ENSO Application
Center) Climate Teleconference and the Southern Pacific Island Climate Teleconference have
been held monthly to support the decision making processes undertaken in the tropical Pacific
region for water resource management, fisheries management, agriculture, natural disaster
mitigation strategies, and other climate sensitive sectors. <strong>The</strong> climate teleconferences also set
up a bridge to exchange the climate information for the scientists from US, Australia, New
Zealand, and Pacific island nations. Both dynamic and statistical forecasting tools are
examined for the seasonal rainfall forecast for the tropical Pacific region in the climate
teleconferences. An objectively consolidated seasonal rainfall forecast scheme for the tropical
Pacific region is developed recently through the support of the NOAA PRIDE (Pacific Region
Integrated Data Enterprise) project. <strong>The</strong> future plan and opportunities, e.g., NOAA Climate
Test Bed (CTB) and Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS), for improving the climate
prediction skill for the tropical Pacific region will also be discussed.
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