The tenth IMSC, Beijing, China, 2007 - International Meetings on ...

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A range of existing statistical approaches for reconstructing historical temperature variations from proxy data are compared using both climate model data and real-world paleoclimate proxy data. We also propose a new method for reconstruction that is based on a state-space time series model and Kalman filter algorithm. Two methods, one using a state-space modelling approach and the other the recently developed RegEM method, generally perform better than their competitors when reconstructing interannual variations in Northern Hemispheric mean surface air temperature. On the other hand, a variety of methods are seen to perform well when reconstructing surface air temperature variability on decadal time scales. An advantage of the new method is that it can incorporate additional, non-temperature, information into the reconstruction, such as the estimated response to external forcing, thereby permitting a simultaneous reconstruction and detection analysis as well as projection into the future. An application of these extension is also demonstrated in the paper. Invited Session: <strong>The</strong> Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with a Meridional Tripole Pattern Distribution in the Interannual Variability and Anomaly of Asian Summer Monsoon over East Asia Speaker: Huang Ronghui Huang Ronghui Intitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences hrh@asg.iap.ac.cn/hgiap@hotmail.com Chen Jilong Intitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Huang Gang Intitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences In order to reveal the regularity of the interannual variability and anomaly of Asian summer monsoon over East Asia, the observed data of summer precipitation in <strong>China</strong>, the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis data and the Empirical Orthogonal Founction (EOF) and the entropy spectral analysis methods are applied to analyze the interannual variations of summer monsoon (June-August) rainfall in <strong>China</strong> and water vapor transport fluxes over East Asia in this paper. <strong>The</strong> results show that there is an obvious oscillation with a period of two~three years, i.e., the TBO, in the interannual variations of summer monsoon rainfall in <strong>China</strong>, and the spatial distribution of this oscillation exhibits a meridional tripole pattern structure over East Asia. Moreover, it is also shown that this oscillation is closely associated 9
with the quasi-biennial oscillation in the interannual variations of the water vapor transport fluxes by summer monsoon flow over East Asia. Furthermore, in order to understand the physical processes including the internal and external processes that influence the variability of Asian summer monsoon over East Asia, in this paper, the interannual variations of sea temperature in the surface and subsurface of the tropical western Pacific are analyzed by using the sea surface temperature (SST) data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the sea temperature in the subsurface of the West Pacific along 137°E, JMA, respectively. From the analyzed result, it is revealed that there is also a significant quasi-biennial oscillation in the interannual variations of thermal state of the tropical western Pacific. And it is also shown that the quasi-biennial oscillation in the interannual variations of thermal state of the tropical western Pacific has a great impact on the Asian summer monsoon and the water vapor transport driven by the monsoon flow over East Asia. Besides, the influencing mechanism of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the interannual variations of thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on the interannual variations of Asian summer monsoon is discussed by using the teleconnection theory in this paper. <strong>The</strong> TBO with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variability and anomaly of Asian summer monsoon over East Asia can be well explained from the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern of circulation anomalies responding to forcing by the heating anomaly around the Philippines proposed by Nitta (1987), and Huang and Li (1987, 1988). And the teleconnection pattern of meridional wind anomalies along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over East Asia also has an important influence on the meridional tripole pattern distribution. Evidences and Modeling Study of Droughts in <strong>China</strong> during 4-2kaBP Speaker: Wang Shaowu Wang Shaowu Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Physics Peking University swwang@pku.edu.cn Huang Jianbin Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Physics Peking University Wen Xinyu Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Physics Peking University Zhu Jinhong Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Physics Peking University Documentary records indicated the predominance of drought in the period of 4-2kaBP, which covered the Xia (since 2070BC), Shang (since 1600BC), and West Zhou (1041-771BC) Dynasties and so forth. Drying up of the rivers, disasters with droughts were recorded in a series of historical documentations, such as Chronicles on Bamboo Clappers, Book of Odes, 13 Chinese Encyclopedia, and so on. Palaeo-environmental data; pollen, peat, TOC, C, and magnetic susceptibility provided high-resolution records of climatic humidity in thousands years ago. Droughts have predominated in <strong>China</strong> 4-2kaBP according to the 10
Page 1 and 2: 1Oth International
Page 3: Preface It is truly a great pleasur
Page 6 and 7: Speaker: Dan Cooley................
Page 8 and 9: Speaker: Qian Li ..................
Page 10 and 11: Speaker: Ediang Okuku Archibong....
Page 12 and 13: Speaker: Yi Wang...................
Page 14 and 15: Climatological Dataset.............
Page 16 and 17: Bridging the gap between simulated
Page 18 and 19: Invited Session: Spatial patterns o
Page 20 and 21: Joint Program on the Science and Po
Page 22 and 23: e to adopt a different calibrated l
Page 24 and 25: those retained, and [iii] performan
Page 28 and 29: palaeo-environmental data from sout
Page 30 and 31: Whilst it has been noted that such
Page 32 and 33: State Key Laboratory of Numerical M
Page 34 and 35: address new policies for changing c
Page 36 and 37: and show promise for analyzing tren
Page 38 and 39: 1901-2005 with complete data of all
Page 40 and 41: Homogenization of daily meteorologi
Page 42 and 43: as Homogen Data, Gap, Index, Statis
Page 44 and 45: Penalized maximal t-test for detect
Page 46 and 47: Iran,Tehran, Azad university, Resea
Page 48 and 49: We present applications of several
Page 50 and 51: A 50-member ensemble is produced wi
Page 52 and 53: ichard@stats.ucl.ac.uk Nadja Leith
Page 54 and 55: Answering questions about empirical
Page 56 and 57: In a series of climate change impac
Page 58 and 59: climatological annual frequency of
Page 60 and 61: Detection of urban warming in recen
Page 62 and 63: Detection of Human Influence on pan
Page 64 and 65: Extending attribution studies: post
Page 66 and 67: Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hege
Page 68 and 69: 1, In the middle-pattern of El Niñ
Page 70 and 71: convergence zone (ITCZ). Th
Page 72 and 73: stationary waves occur in mid-latit
Page 74 and 75: A multiple surrogate data study of
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Linear and non-linear reconstructio
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Pseudo-proxy tests of the regulariz
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Parallel Sessions:Regional Studies
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Iterative Interpolation of Daily Pr
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disturbance in the natural ecosyste
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Climate Risk Management in North-Ea
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Analyzing of synoptic intence showe
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chosen since it completely defines
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The Roles of Ensem
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The diagram shows
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Empirical probabilistic seasonal fo
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Rajesh J. Department of Atmospheric
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Andrew Moore Uni. of California at
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Parallel Sessions:Simulation tools
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data can ever be generated. In fact
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egion can be explained by the rando
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on instantaneous time scales, respe
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Key words:- principal component reg
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een analysed with geostatistical to
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Iberian Peninsula and with the corr
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89% during the 10 days of mid-June,
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The paper examines
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Special AMS Session:Verification of
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Verification of Climate Forecasts (
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the regional climate change is repr
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model has been applied to the serie
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are analyzed. It is shown that thes
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stations in Iran. The</stro
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The study of the U
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Development and analysis of a daily
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Fractal widely exists in nature, an
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Rescue of historical climate data:
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D. Semeradova Institute of Landscap
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Kulkarni Ashwini, Sabade S S and Kr
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The magnitude of t
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Richard E. Chandler University Coll
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convective cloud clusters when they
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1999; Smith et al, 2001; Gibbons, 2
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dmanatsa@buse.ac.zw Wisemen Chingom
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The Relation Betwe
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conditioned on some indices of the
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ari@ludens.elte.hu J. Bartholy Dept
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ainfall as predictand. Additionally
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Impact of ENSO PHASES on Amazonia S
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time lag. Both perturbed analysis a
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Relationship Between Ensemble Mean
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ways were considered. Four zones, f
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- Monthly ratios of synthetic and o
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Total ozone trends are typically st
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Impact of Urban Expansion on Region
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Calibrating and evaluating reanalys
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To explore an optimal climate decis
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