The tenth IMSC, Beijing, China, 2007 - International Meetings on ...

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Calibrating and evaluating reanalyses surface temperature bias by topographic correction Tianbao Zhao Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences zhaotb@tea.ac.cn Weidong Guo Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Congbin Fu Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Based on the observed daily surface air temperature data from 597 stations over continental <strong>China</strong> and 2 sets of reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40) during 1979- 2001, the altitude effects in calibrating and evaluating reanalyzed surface temperature errors are studied. <strong>The</strong> results indicate that accuracy of interpolated surface temperature from the reanalyzed grid point value or the station observations depends much on the altitudes of original data. Bias of interpolated temperature is usually in proportion to the increase of local elevation and topographical complexity. Notable improvements of interpolated surface temperature have been achieved through “topographic correction”, especially for ERA-40 reanalysis, which highlights the necessity of removal of “elevation–induced bias” when using and evaluating reanalyzed surface temperature. A Statistical Prediction of the Seasonal Mean Circulation and a Comparison with Dynamical Ensemble Prediction using NCEP’s CFS Xiaogu Zheng National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand x.zheng@niwa.co.nz David Straus George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland, USA Carstern S. Frederiksen Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia Reanalysis data and a recently developed variance decomposition approach are applied to statistically predict seasonal mean 500hPa geopotential height anomalies in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. <strong>The</strong> statistical prediction is compared with the dynamical ensemble prediction of the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s coupled Climate Forecast System. (CFS). Generally speaking, the statistical scheme produces a lower prediction error than the dynamical prediction scheme. Using a combined spatio-temporal correlation measure, we find that the CFS dynamical predictions have slightly higher skill 159
compared to the statistical predictions in Northern Hemisphere, but slightly lower skill in the Southern Hemisphere. However, because coupled general circulation models have the potential to simulate the contemporaneous air-sea interactions, they have the potential to predict the seasonal mean circulation patterns forced by such interactions. By contrast, statistical prediction relies on a lagged SST or circulation index relationship, which precludes the prediction of modes for which contemporaneous interactions are important. Here, we provide two striking examples: the boreal winter western Pacific oscillation and the austral winter meridional wave train. <strong>The</strong>ir inter-annual variations are successfully predicted by the dynamical model, but could not be included in the proposed statistical prediction scheme due to a lack of lagged predictors. A Statistical Prediction of the Seasonal Mean Circulation Xiaogu Zheng National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand x.zheng@niwa.co.nz David Straus George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia Carstern S. Frederiksen Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia Reanalysis data and a recently developed variance decomposition approach are applied to statistically predict seasonal mean 500hPa geopotential height anomalies in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. <strong>The</strong> statistical prediction is compared with the dynamical ensemble prediction of the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s coupled Climate Forecast System. (CFS). Generally speaking, the statistical scheme produces a lower prediction error than the dynamical prediction scheme. Using a combined spatio-temporal correlation measure, we find that the CFS dynamical predictions have slightly higher skill compared to the statistical predictions in Northern Hemisphere, but slightly lower skill in the Southern Hemisphere.However, because coupled general circulation models have the potential to simulate the contemporaneous air-sea interactions, they have the potential to predict the seasonal mean circulation patterns forced by such interactions. By contrast, statistical prediction relies on a lagged SST or circulation index relationship, which precludes the prediction of modes for which contemporaneous interactions are important. Here, we provide two striking examples: the boreal winter western Pacific oscillation and the austral winter meridional wave train. <strong>The</strong>ir inter-annual variations are successfully predicted by the dynamical model, but could not be included in the proposed statistical prediction scheme due to a lack of lagged predictors. 160
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1Oth International
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Preface It is truly a great pleasur
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Speaker: Dan Cooley................
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Speaker: Qian Li ..................
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Speaker: Ediang Okuku Archibong....
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Speaker: Yi Wang...................
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Climatological Dataset.............
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Bridging the gap between simulated
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Invited Session: Spatial patterns o
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Joint Program on the Science and Po
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e to adopt a different calibrated l
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those retained, and [iii] performan
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A range of existing statistical app
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palaeo-environmental data from sout
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Whilst it has been noted that such
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State Key Laboratory of Numerical M
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address new policies for changing c
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and show promise for analyzing tren
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1901-2005 with complete data of all
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Homogenization of daily meteorologi
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as Homogen Data, Gap, Index, Statis
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Penalized maximal t-test for detect
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Iran,Tehran, Azad university, Resea
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We present applications of several
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A 50-member ensemble is produced wi
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ichard@stats.ucl.ac.uk Nadja Leith
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Answering questions about empirical
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In a series of climate change impac
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climatological annual frequency of
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Detection of urban warming in recen
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Detection of Human Influence on pan
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Extending attribution studies: post
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Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hege
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1, In the middle-pattern of El Niñ
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convergence zone (ITCZ). Th
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stationary waves occur in mid-latit
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A multiple surrogate data study of
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Linear and non-linear reconstructio
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Pseudo-proxy tests of the regulariz
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Parallel Sessions:Regional Studies
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Iterative Interpolation of Daily Pr
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disturbance in the natural ecosyste
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Climate Risk Management in North-Ea
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Analyzing of synoptic intence showe
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chosen since it completely defines
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The Roles of Ensem
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The diagram shows
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Empirical probabilistic seasonal fo
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Rajesh J. Department of Atmospheric
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Andrew Moore Uni. of California at
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Parallel Sessions:Simulation tools
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data can ever be generated. In fact
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egion can be explained by the rando
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on instantaneous time scales, respe
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Key words:- principal component reg
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een analysed with geostatistical to
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Iberian Peninsula and with the corr
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89% during the 10 days of mid-June,
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The paper examines
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Special AMS Session:Verification of
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Verification of Climate Forecasts (
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the regional climate change is repr
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Page 158 and 159: ari@ludens.elte.hu J. Bartholy Dept
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