The tenth IMSC, Beijing, China, 2007 - International Meetings on ...

vectors. <strong>The</strong> variation of local predictability across state space is examined. <strong>The</strong> study also
aims to infer predictability information in geographical rather than spectral space. To this end,
local growth exponents are calculated from the Lyapunov vectors and their time evolution.
Moreover, a local Lyapunov vector dimension is introduced to measure the dimension of the
space spanned by the leading Lyapunov vectors locally in geographical space.
<strong>The</strong> methodology of cluster-weighted modeling is used to derive a probabilistic model of
the first Lyapunov exponent conditioned on the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs)
of the QG model. This approach allows the identification of regimes in the large-scale
circulation that tend to be associated with large or small finite-time Lyapunov exponents as
quantified by a regime-weighted mean Lyapunov exponent.
Projected change in mean and extreme climate over Korea
Won-Tae Kwon
Climate Research Lab., Meteorological Research Institute, Korea Meteorological Administration,
Korea
wontk@metri.re.kr
Eun-Soon Im
Earth System Physics Section, ICTP, Italy
Moon-Hyun Kim
Climate Research Lab., Meteorological Research Institute, Korea Meteorological Administration,
Korea
We present an analysis of a simulated climate projection covering the period 1971-2080
over the Korean Peninsula with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way
double-nested system. <strong>The</strong> mean climate state as well as frequency and intensity of daily
extreme events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with a focus on
surface air temperature and precipitation.In order to obtain confidence of future climate
projection, we first evaluated the reference scenario (1971-2000) against a dense observation
network over the Korean territory. <strong>The</strong> RegCM3 successfully simulates the fine scale structure
of the temperature field due to topographic forcing but it shows a systematic cold bias mostly
due to an underestimate of maximum temperature. <strong>The</strong> frequency distribution of simulated
daily mean temperature agrees well with the observed seasonal and spatial patterns. In the
summer season, however, daily variability is underestimated. <strong>The</strong> RegCM3 simulation
adequately captures the seasonal evolution of precipitation associated to the East Asian
monsoon. In particular, the simulated winter precipitation is remarkably good. Although
summer precipitation is underestimated, area-averaged time series of precipitation over Korea
show that the RegCM3 agrees better with observations than ECHO-G both in terms of
seasonal evolution and precipitation amounts. Heavy rainfall phenomena exceeding 300
mm/day are simulated only at the high resolution of the double nested domain. Projected
changes in both temperature and precipitation fields provide strong evidence that East Asia
including the Korean Peninsula undergoes a more warmer and wetter climate regime in
response to the intensification of the summer monsoon and weakening of the winter monsoon.
126