The tenth IMSC, Beijing, China, 2007 - International Meetings on ...

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Fractal widely exists in nature, and has been developed both in theory and application. Self-organized criticality (SOC) is one possible explanation for fractal behavior. <strong>The</strong> temporal-spatial fractal characters of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been documented in many articles. El Niño event may be a result of the phenomena of SOC. However, how El Niño affects the fractal characters of SST? Can we show the adequate features of SOC for the El Niño events? In this study, we applied discrete second-order Daubechies wavelet transform method using the HadISST data sets from 1870-2005. We examined the SOC features for El Niño event on the scale of Quasi- Biennial-Oscillation (QBO). <strong>The</strong> results confirmed that QBO was important for El Niño event, and represented that some El Niño events are due to the result of SOC on the timescale of QBO, especially after 1990. Hence, SOC also offered a statistical explanation for El Niño event, in addition to the variant physical explanations. Moreover, we found that there were two distinct periods, i.e. 1894-1923 and 1978-2000, during which the trend of the oscillation of ENSO-event-index well meets with that of fractal dimension, i.e., Hurst coefficient “H”. <strong>The</strong> inverse trends between ENSO-index and “H” were normally due to the influence of La Niña events. <strong>The</strong> mechanisms of El Niño and La Niña events may be certain distinct in the inner mechanisms. This study may help understanding of El Niño phenomena, and will help for forecasting of El Niño. Global average surface temperature anomalies with COBE-SST Koji Ishihara Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency kishihar@mri-jma.go.jp For the purpose of monitoring the global warming, Japan Meteorological Agency has so far estimated operationally the long-term change of global average surface temperature anomalies with both observed data at meteorological stations and the historical SST analysis (COBE-SST).<strong>The</strong> result shows that the global average surface temperature has been rising at a rate of about 0.67 ﾟ C per 100 years since 1891.<strong>The</strong> standard error of the globally and annually averaged temperature time series is also computed to be around 0.08 ﾟ C for these few decades. Multi-timescale Analysis, Reconstruction and Estimation for Global Sun Solar in January and North Hemispherical Temperature Anomalies Data Ji Lingling Nanjing Normal University jll0011@126.com Lin Zhenshan 119
Nanjing Normal University Cao Liqing Nanjing Normal University Assumed that climate change is a period signal only changed with time, and a composition of multi-timescale signals without regard to the affect of other physical factors, such as sunspots, radiation etc., then each periods of climatic data can be decomposed by EMD method and the model can be built using nonlinear minimization procedures to reconstruct this climate data. Further, the future climate change can be estimated by using this model. <strong>The</strong> experimentations on two different real time series, global sun solar in January and North hemispherical temperature anomalies data from NOAA.CDC., indicate that this method is able to get very good fit results. <strong>The</strong>refore, the method used in this paper show great promise for revealing patterns in historical data. Key Words: Climatic Time Series; Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD); Data Reconstruction Long-term climatology of droughts in the Limpopo Province of South Africa T. A. Kabanda University of Venda, South Africa kabanda@univen.ac.za This paper examines the nature of long-term climatology of droughts in the Vhembe District of the Limpopo Province in South Africa. One of its focus areas is the assessment of the long-term rainfall characteristics in the district to determine changes over time, frequency and duration of dry spells. Drought is described as a severe event, therefore the frequency of occurrence and intensity need to be explained by using criteria that distinguish normal dry spells from real drought. <strong>The</strong> study examines the geographical variability of dry spells in the area and analyses seasonal drought in detail to reveal its frequency, spatial coverage, and persistence. <strong>The</strong> required data in this study is the area rainfall, obtained from South Africa Weather Service (SAWS). All station data were intercorrelated to produce blocks of highly correlating sites. All the blocks were subjected to principal component analysis (PCA) to determine their homogeneity in space. Rainfall data for 40 years (1960-1999) were used. Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs) was employed to determine the statistical rarity of drought episodes, drought onset, intensity and cessation. From rainfall time series, abnormally extended dry spells and consecutive long dry spells are precursors of drought. <strong>The</strong> SPI detects negative values that indicate less than median precipitation, and if they persists to reach SPI value of -1.0 or less it is a sign of occurrence of drought. Findings of this research demonstrate the nature of the long-term climatology of drought in Limpopo Province and are of use in agriculture, water resource management, drought monitoring and early warning and also in formulating drought policies. 120
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1Oth International
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Preface It is truly a great pleasur
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Speaker: Dan Cooley................
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Speaker: Qian Li ..................
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Speaker: Ediang Okuku Archibong....
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Speaker: Yi Wang...................
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Climatological Dataset.............
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Bridging the gap between simulated
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Invited Session: Spatial patterns o
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Joint Program on the Science and Po
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e to adopt a different calibrated l
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those retained, and [iii] performan
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A range of existing statistical app
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palaeo-environmental data from sout
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Whilst it has been noted that such
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State Key Laboratory of Numerical M
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address new policies for changing c
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and show promise for analyzing tren
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1901-2005 with complete data of all
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Homogenization of daily meteorologi
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as Homogen Data, Gap, Index, Statis
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Penalized maximal t-test for detect
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Iran,Tehran, Azad university, Resea
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We present applications of several
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A 50-member ensemble is produced wi
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ichard@stats.ucl.ac.uk Nadja Leith
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Answering questions about empirical
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In a series of climate change impac
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climatological annual frequency of
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Detection of urban warming in recen
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Detection of Human Influence on pan
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Extending attribution studies: post
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Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hege
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1, In the middle-pattern of El Niñ
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convergence zone (ITCZ). Th
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stationary waves occur in mid-latit
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A multiple surrogate data study of
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Linear and non-linear reconstructio
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Pseudo-proxy tests of the regulariz
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Parallel Sessions:Regional Studies
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Iterative Interpolation of Daily Pr
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disturbance in the natural ecosyste
Page 86 and 87: Climate Risk Management in North-Ea
Page 88 and 89: Analyzing of synoptic intence showe
Page 90 and 91: chosen since it completely defines
Page 92 and 93: The Roles of Ensem
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Page 96 and 97: Empirical probabilistic seasonal fo
Page 98 and 99: Rajesh J. Department of Atmospheric
Page 100 and 101: Andrew Moore Uni. of California at
Page 102 and 103: Parallel Sessions:Simulation tools
Page 104 and 105: data can ever be generated. In fact
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Page 108 and 109: on instantaneous time scales, respe
Page 110 and 111: Key words:- principal component reg
Page 112 and 113: een analysed with geostatistical to
Page 114 and 115: Iberian Peninsula and with the corr
Page 116 and 117: 89% during the 10 days of mid-June,
Page 118 and 119: The paper examines
Page 120 and 121: Special AMS Session:Verification of
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Page 124 and 125: the regional climate change is repr
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Page 128 and 129: are analyzed. It is shown that thes
Page 130 and 131: stations in Iran. The</stro
Page 132 and 133: The study of the U
Page 134 and 135: Development and analysis of a daily
Page 138 and 139: Rescue of historical climate data:
Page 140 and 141: D. Semeradova Institute of Landscap
Page 142 and 143: Kulkarni Ashwini, Sabade S S and Kr
Page 144 and 145: The magnitude of t
Page 146 and 147: Richard E. Chandler University Coll
Page 148 and 149: convective cloud clusters when they
Page 150 and 151: 1999; Smith et al, 2001; Gibbons, 2
Page 152 and 153: dmanatsa@buse.ac.zw Wisemen Chingom
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Page 158 and 159: ari@ludens.elte.hu J. Bartholy Dept
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Page 162 and 163: Impact of ENSO PHASES on Amazonia S
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Page 166 and 167: Relationship Between Ensemble Mean
Page 168 and 169: ways were considered. Four zones, f
Page 170 and 171: - Monthly ratios of synthetic and o
Page 172 and 173: Total ozone trends are typically st
Page 174 and 175: Impact of Urban Expansion on Region
Page 176 and 177: Calibrating and evaluating reanalys
Page 178: To explore an optimal climate decis
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