The tenth IMSC, Beijing, China, 2007 - International Meetings on ...

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convective cloud clusters when they develop vigorously,this paper gives a definition to it. It comes to several statistical conclutions by investgating the whole process from starting to disappearing of mesoscale convective cloud. (2)Raising a new point about the origin of the mesoscale convective cloud clusters,it is considered that the fundamental reason which causes the mesoscale convective cloud clusters is heating in local and dry layer;rather than upper trough or surface front. (3)Analyses show that 74% mesoscale convective cloud clusters can cause torrential rains of the middle Yangtze River during meiyu season,44% torrential rains of the middle Yangtze River during meiyu season are caused by mesoscale convective cloud clusters.So to do well in the torrential rains of the middle Yangtze River during meiyu season,the analysis of mesoscale convective cloud clusters is essential. <strong>The</strong> Study of <strong>The</strong> Effect of Dongting Lake on <strong>The</strong> Temperature Tiantian Liu Hunan meteorologiacal offcie fbbt114@163.com Abstract:According to the climatic datas about 101 stations of Hunan province from 1951 to 1980,and the datas hour by hour from part of observational stations in Hunan, in climatic and meteorologial term,in macroscopic and microcosmic term,this paper analyses the effect of Dongting Lake on the temperature,coming out:1.<strong>The</strong> effect of Dongting Lake on the daily variation of air temperature is very obvious,Yueyang is by the east of the Dongting Lake,its daily maximum temperatures appear at 17 in average,even meteorologists in the lake district have not perceived this definitely before;2.<strong>The</strong> extreme maximum temperature of Dongting Lake district is lower than surrounding regions,and its extreme minimun temperature is higher than surrounding regions;3.<strong>The</strong> mean annual maximum temperature of Dongting Lake is lower than surrounding regions,and its mean annual minimum temperature is higher than surrounding regions,the data is about 1 ;4.<strong>The</strong> daily range of temperatures of Dongting Lake are smaller than other regions in Hunan province;5.<strong>The</strong> high-temperature days and low-temperature days of lake district are fewer than others. <strong>The</strong> Study of Reasons of Drought of Northwestern Region of Iran Fardin Saberi Louyeh Danesh scientail and cultural institute, Tehran, Iran fardinlouyeh@yahoo.com Dr.Mjgan Afshar Azad University, central branch, Tehran, Iran 131
<strong>The</strong> prevailing climate on our country is due to its location in dry and semi-dry district, as a result, drought is the commonest phenomenon in this country. One of the drought and climatologic drought's definitions is as follow. If the precipitation is less than average during long-term period, it is called drought. <strong>The</strong> drought of northwestern of Iran which is due to the shortage of precipitation has caused starvation and poverty.First, the research framework, theoretical principle, and study of precipitation fluctuations, trend, temperature, humidity, wind, evapotranspiration of stations are under study. <strong>The</strong>n the precipitation correlation between stations and precipitation and temperature correlation with respect to altitudes have been studied. In order to determine the reasons of drought in the region which is under study, primarily, the fluctuations of time, frequency and degree of drought as per Z score have been examined which prove in statistical and synoptic network that due to simultaneous drought in region in terms of severity, weakness frequency, time, location at different stations are different. And later on study of reasons of drought with regard to the pattern movement of general circulation of climate with Tel connection which results in changing in pattern pressure in region and movement of circumpolar western line and blocking systems by benefiting from normal distribution probability the return period 2,5,20,100,1000 were determined and the occurrence of probability in distribution %20 & 80% was calculated and return period with 5-year drought range and 5-year humid period range. Quantifying Uncertanties Associated With Climate Variaiblity and Climate Change Studies: the Cox´S Semiparametric Approach Aline de Holanda Nunes Maia e-mail:ahmaia@cnpma.embrapa.br Embrapa Meio Ambiente Holger Meinke e-mail:holger.meinke@wur.nl Wageningen University, Department of Plant Sciences A wide range of probabilistic approaches have been used for assessing climatic risks and associated uncertainties: multiple linear regression (Martis et al, 2002), logistic regression (Nichols, 1984; Lo et al, <strong>2007</strong>), nonparametric approaches based on empirical cumulative distribution functions (Maia & Meinke, 1998; Maia et al, 2004), among others. In this paper, we quantify risks by using probability of exeedance curves (PECs) and propose the use of the proportional hazards model (also referred to as Cox model - Cox, 1972; CPH model) to investigate the influence of continuous (e.g. oceanic/atmospheric indexes) or categorical predictors (e.g. classes derived from El Niño/Southern Oscillation) on these risks. CPH model is widely used in medical analyses of survival data that examine the effect of explanatory variables on survival times. This allows the ranking of risk factors and quantitative assessments of their impacts. <strong>The</strong>se methods are well established in medical research and used routinely for risk assessment in medical studies (e.g. Finkelstein et al, 1993; De Lorgeril, 132
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1Oth International
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Preface It is truly a great pleasur
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Speaker: Dan Cooley................
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Speaker: Qian Li ..................
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Speaker: Ediang Okuku Archibong....
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Speaker: Yi Wang...................
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Climatological Dataset.............
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Bridging the gap between simulated
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Invited Session: Spatial patterns o
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Joint Program on the Science and Po
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e to adopt a different calibrated l
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those retained, and [iii] performan
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A range of existing statistical app
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palaeo-environmental data from sout
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Whilst it has been noted that such
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State Key Laboratory of Numerical M
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address new policies for changing c
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and show promise for analyzing tren
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1901-2005 with complete data of all
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Homogenization of daily meteorologi
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as Homogen Data, Gap, Index, Statis
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Penalized maximal t-test for detect
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Iran,Tehran, Azad university, Resea
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We present applications of several
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A 50-member ensemble is produced wi
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ichard@stats.ucl.ac.uk Nadja Leith
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Answering questions about empirical
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In a series of climate change impac
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climatological annual frequency of
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Detection of urban warming in recen
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Detection of Human Influence on pan
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Extending attribution studies: post
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Francis W. Zwiers, Gabriele C. Hege
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1, In the middle-pattern of El Niñ
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convergence zone (ITCZ). Th
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stationary waves occur in mid-latit
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A multiple surrogate data study of
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Linear and non-linear reconstructio
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Pseudo-proxy tests of the regulariz
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Parallel Sessions:Regional Studies
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Iterative Interpolation of Daily Pr
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disturbance in the natural ecosyste
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Climate Risk Management in North-Ea
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Analyzing of synoptic intence showe
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chosen since it completely defines
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The Roles of Ensem
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The diagram shows
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Empirical probabilistic seasonal fo
Page 98 and 99: Rajesh J. Department of Atmospheric
Page 100 and 101: Andrew Moore Uni. of California at
Page 102 and 103: Parallel Sessions:Simulation tools
Page 104 and 105: data can ever be generated. In fact
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Page 110 and 111: Key words:- principal component reg
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Page 118 and 119: The paper examines
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Page 122 and 123: Verification of Climate Forecasts (
Page 124 and 125: the regional climate change is repr
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Page 132 and 133: The study of the U
Page 134 and 135: Development and analysis of a daily
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Page 138 and 139: Rescue of historical climate data:
Page 140 and 141: D. Semeradova Institute of Landscap
Page 142 and 143: Kulkarni Ashwini, Sabade S S and Kr
Page 144 and 145: The magnitude of t
Page 146 and 147: Richard E. Chandler University Coll
Page 150 and 151: 1999; Smith et al, 2001; Gibbons, 2
Page 152 and 153: dmanatsa@buse.ac.zw Wisemen Chingom
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Page 158 and 159: ari@ludens.elte.hu J. Bartholy Dept
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Page 162 and 163: Impact of ENSO PHASES on Amazonia S
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Page 166 and 167: Relationship Between Ensemble Mean
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Page 170 and 171: - Monthly ratios of synthetic and o
Page 172 and 173: Total ozone trends are typically st
Page 174 and 175: Impact of Urban Expansion on Region
Page 176 and 177: Calibrating and evaluating reanalys
Page 178: To explore an optimal climate decis
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