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Tree Improvement Program Project Report 2006 / 2007

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Cl mate Change<br />

ClimateBC: Our ClimateBC model continues to be<br />

used widely in forestry research in BC and the number<br />

of non-forestry related applications is growing rapidly.<br />

CFGC Assistant Director Tongli Wang is upgrading it<br />

continually. Version 3.1 beta, including historical (1901<br />

– 2002) monthly climate data and 1971-2000 normal data,<br />

has been developed and is now ready for download from<br />

the CFGC website. ClimateBC v3.2, which will use finer<br />

(change from 1° to 0.5°) annual anomaly input data, is in<br />

development. The web version of ClimateBC v2.3 has been<br />

upgraded to version 3.1.<br />

Response of lodgepole pine populations to future<br />

climates: This work used growth response functions to<br />

determine the performance of each population in the<br />

Illingworth provenance trial along climatic gradients<br />

(Wang et al. <strong>2006</strong>). Results of this study suggest 1) the<br />

importance of using reliable climate models in genecology<br />

to avoid misleading conclusions and using anchor points<br />

and multivariate functions to improve the growth response<br />

functions; 2) that populations from the south are not<br />

necessarily the best choice for future climates; 3) the<br />

identity of populations adapted to a broad range of climatic<br />

conditions, particularly from NE low and PG low; and 4)<br />

that the potential for using optimized seed source selection<br />

to mitigate climate change is substantial.<br />

Graduate student Sierra Curtis-McLane is examining<br />

annual radial growth in lodgepole pine relative to changing<br />

climate patterns in British Columbia as part of her PhD<br />

research. She collected tree cores spanning 25-30 growth<br />

rings from nine provenances on 15 sites of the Illingworth<br />

provenance trial and is analyzing them to assess annual<br />

genotype-by-environment interactions across a spectrum<br />

of climatic conditions. She measured the tree rings using<br />

standard dendrochronological techniques and will use<br />

the measurements to analyze inter-annual variation in<br />

provenance growth in relation to weather records. She<br />

will compare the results to these provenances’ predicted<br />

responses to changes in climate.<br />

Predicting future distributions of ecosystems and<br />

seed planning units: Andreas Hamann and Tongli Wang<br />

used the ClimateBC model in their landmark <strong>2006</strong><br />

publication in the journal Ecology that predicted the future<br />

distribution of climates currently associated with BEC<br />

zones and tree species in BC (Hamann and Wang <strong>2006</strong>).<br />

As a continuation of this work and because small spatial<br />

units do not translate well into operational practices, Tongli<br />

Wang has developed a maximum probability approach to<br />

T R E E I M P R O V E M E N T P R O G R A M<br />

P R O J E C T R E P O R T 2 0 0 6 / 2 0 0 7<br />

predicting the future distribution of BEC zones and SPUs<br />

without extensive fragmenting across BC landscapes. We<br />

hope that these methods will be quite useful in the revision<br />

of seed transfer guidelines in anticipation of climate change.<br />

Incremental FIA Cl mate Change <strong>Project</strong>:<br />

Short-term testing of provenances and genotypes to<br />

predict response to climate change and adapt seed<br />

transfer policy: Because relatively few species have<br />

comprehensive provenance trials spanning a sufficient<br />

range of climates to derive provenance response curves,<br />

we are attempting to derive such curves based on seedling<br />

growth and phenology in controlled growth-chamber<br />

environments. Our current experiment builds upon<br />

research completed in 2004-2005, which investigated the<br />

response functions of lodgepole pine to temperature and<br />

CO 2 . The previous study found that height and volume<br />

growth of seedlings in controlled environments peaked at<br />

a simulated mean annual temperature (MAT) of 9°C or<br />

higher, whereas this peak was estimated to occur somewhere<br />

between 3 and 6°C in the field (Wang et al. <strong>2006</strong>). The<br />

most important difference, we believe, was that our climate<br />

regimes in the growth chambers were built to simulate<br />

monthly averages of daily average temperature and daily<br />

temperature range rather than daily variations as in real<br />

weather and did not include any application of drought.<br />

The new experiment includes more realistic climate<br />

regimes based on climatic means for locations with MAT<br />

4°C, MAT 7°, MAT 10°, and MAT 10° + 2 x ambient<br />

CO 2 , with daily variations added around weekly and<br />

monthly temperature averages. Each temperature regime<br />

includes both well-watered and drought treatments. The<br />

new experiment contains approximately 20 seedlots each<br />

of interior spruce and lodgepole pine, including both<br />

natural stands and improved seed orchard lots from across<br />

a broad geographic range. Most of the interior spruce<br />

seedlots are also part of a recently established, large field<br />

trial (the Sx genecology trial EP 670.71.12), and the wildstand<br />

lodgepole pine seedlots are also represented in the<br />

Illingworth trial. This will allow us to compare growthchamber<br />

data with field-growth performance later on.<br />

Seedlings are planted in boxes that allow for extensive root<br />

competition; this makes drought treatments more realistic.<br />

Plant height is being measured bi-weekly, and the growing<br />

season lasts 26 weeks. The experiment will be replicated<br />

twice, once now and again in winter, <strong>2007</strong>-08.

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