Crop production data and forecasts system in ... - Foodnet - cgiar

Table 17. Annual Production of Wheat in Metric Tonnes
Wheat
UBOS Statistical
Abstract 2002*
FAO
1996 9,000 9,000
1997 9,000 9,000
1998 9,000 9,000
1999 11,000 11,000
2000 12,000 12,000
2001 14,000 14,000
2002 14,000 14,000
* 2001 figures are estimates, 2002 figures are projections
The UBOS Statistical Abstract is the primary source of crop production statistics for
Uganda. FAO figures are extracted from the UBOS Statistical Abstract and hence
largely mirror this publication.
The comparison between UBOS Statistical Abstract figures and other data sources
(UBOS Crop Survey Module, IDEA Project data, Commodity Studies and
Commercial Estimates) produces interesting results. Statistical Abstract crop
production figures significantly exceed other available data for cooking banana,
cassava, finger millet, sorghum and sesame. UBOS Statistical Abstract and Crop
Module figures are similar for beans, however both exceed IDEA Project estimates
for this crop. Statistical Abstract and Crop Survey Modules present roughly similar
crop production levels for sweet potatoes and groundnuts. Irish potato figures present
an exception whereby a commodity study suggests production levels exceed those
portrayed in the Statistical Abstract.
For Soybean, Rice, Pigeon Peas, Cow Peas and Wheat we are currently solely reliant
of the UBOS Statistical Abstract. Wheat is included in the USAID Belmon analysis,
which allows some comparison at a district level (Annex 3). This comparison again
suggests overstatement on the part of the Statistical Abstract.
The discrepancy seen between UBOS Statistical Abstract crop production levels and
other data sources supports the hypothesis drawn from comparing National production
and consumption (Table 2) in that UBOS Statistical Abstract figures are overstated.
4.2 Broad Production Estimates for All Crops
The study concluded that there are currently insufficient sources of reliable data for
development of a food balance sheet. Table 18 gives very approximate estimates of
annual production per crop based on available data. It is anticipated that data from
other sources, not available within the timeframe of this study, can be gathered to
improve the accuracy of these estimates.
12