Crop production data and forecasts system in ... - Foodnet - cgiar

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Mukono District Crop 1999 2000 2001 Maize 10,736 14,665 19,500 MAAIF 8,975 9,341 n/a Difference 1,761 5,324 Cassava 43,128 24,726 49,275 MAAIF 173,461 176,699 n/a Difference -130,333 -151,973 Millet 191 186 1,780 MAAIF 3,875 3,415 n/a Difference -3,684 -3,229 Sorghum 439 781 781 MAAIF 2,222 1,943 n/a Difference -1,783 -1,162 Sweet Potatoes 76,760 41,930 93,900 MAAIF 78,024 79,482 n/a Difference -1,264 -37,552 Irish Potatoes 225 490 861 MAAIF 2,477 2,637 n/a Difference -2,252 -2,147 Banana 2,686 51,895 77,400 MAAIF 356,006 375,062 387,155 Difference -353,320 -323,167 -309,755 Beans 11,533 7,867 14,400 MAAIF 9,773 10,236 n/a Difference 1,760 -2,369 Soya beans 14 91 180 MAAIF 251 299 n/a Difference -237 -208 Ground Nuts 1,160 762 1,440 MAAIF 1,182 1,130 Difference -22 -368 SimSim 60 42 50 MAAIF 136 142 Difference -76 -100 16
yield estimates used in the past five years were constant with no variation for weather conditions or other factors. Table 19 compares district and national level crop production statistics from the two districts visited (Iganga and Mukono). The comparison shows district generated crop production statistics to be inconsistent with MAAIF production statistics. Based on the small number of visits, district generated statistics are as unreliable as national figures. Reasons for unreliability include: - Involvement of local councilors in data collection leads to farmer understatement of crop area as they perceive a link to taxation - A plot is of no defined area - Yields per unit area do vary year on year, which is not considered in the statistics - DAOs suggest low moral and understaffing leading to poor area coverage and fictional returns by field workers Figure 1. Overview of Theoretical Information Flow and Main Issues Theoretical Flow Summary of Main Issues LC 1 Parish Chief Field Extension District Agricultural MAAIF Planning Decentralisation UBOS Annual Statistical Abstract Collection of Number of Plots Plots are of No Fixed Size District Multiply Number of Plots by an Estimate of Yield to give Production (Mukono was Monthly, Iganga Seasonal) Yield estimates show little variation Little consistency found between District Generated Figures and MAAIF Generated District Figures UBOS create National figures first, which are then disaggregated to a district level. National figures are exposed to political incentives Decentralisation is commonly recognised as the time when agricultural data collection began to deteriorate. The occurrence of decentralisation during the early 1990’s 17
Page 1 and 2: Short Term Technical Assistance, Ma
Page 3 and 4: List of Tables Table 1. List of Cro
Page 5 and 6: 1 INTRODUCTION This report is an ou
Page 7 and 8: 4 BASELINE PRODUCTION INFORMATION F
Page 9 and 10: Table 8. Annual Production of Sorgh
Page 11 and 12: Table 14. Annual Production of Iris
Page 13 and 14: Table 18. Approximate Annual Crop P
Page 15: Table 19. Comparison of District an
Page 19 and 20: sampling methods to generate nation
Page 21 and 22: 6 OPTION FOR THE PROCESS OF CONSTRU
Page 23 and 24: 7 THE WAY FORWARD 1 Enhancement of
Page 25 and 26: References Collinson, C., Wanda, K.
Page 27 and 28: Annex 1. Scope of Work Improving Ma
Page 29 and 30: Annex 2. Production Data disaggrega
Page 31 and 32: Maize UBOS Crop Survey Module 1999/
Page 33 and 34: Finger Millet UBOS Crop Survey Modu
Page 35 and 36: Sesame MAAIF Production of Sesame (
Page 37 and 38: Beans UBOS Crop Survey Module 1999/
Page 39 and 40: Rice MAAIF Production of Rice (MT)
Page 41 and 42: Cow Peas MAAIF Production of Cow Pe
Page 43 and 44: Annual Maize Exports 1995 - 2002 Ex
Page 45 and 46: Monthly Bean Export Volumes 2000 to
Page 47 and 48: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA : IMPORTS OF SEL
Page 49 and 50: YEAR 2001 NET WEIGHT ( KGS) DESCRIP
Page 51 and 52: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA: EXPORTS OF SELE
Page 53 and 54: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA: EXPORTS OF SELE
Page 55 and 56: Annex 4 Support to Strengthen Agric
Page 57 and 58: (h) A contract between Statistics N
Page 59 and 60: Andrew Kizito Muganga Project Coord
Page 61 and 62: Venie Tinkumanya Agricultural Deput

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