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5 DATA CREDIBILITY 5.1 Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries UBOS with MAAIF produce annual crop production statistics that are included in the Statistical Abstract. UBOS have also produced a separate Crop Survey Module in 1995/6 and 1999/2000. Construction of Statistical Abstract production figures is discussed first followed by the Crop Survey Modules. 5.1.1 Generation of Crop Production Statistics for the Statistical Abstract National Level The current method of calculating annual crop production figures (included in sections 3 and 4) begins at a national level with the creation of crop totals for national production. Senior members of UBOS and MAAIF create these initial national figures, which feed into National GDP statistics 1 . The totals agreed upon are subjective using past trends adjusted for the year’s weather. MAAIF then performs a disaggregation of national totals for each crop to a district level (Annex 2) based on production distribution in 1992. The crop production figures generated by the above method have led to a significant exaggeration of production. This has be seen in section 4 by comparing Statistical Abstract figures with the more reliable Crop Survey Module, IDEA Project, Private Sector and Commodity study results. Agricultural statistical data from UBOS / MAAIF is commonly recognised as being ‘weak, vulnerable, unsustainable and unable to meet data users' needs’ (UBOS 2003). National crop production levels are political with senior politicians wanting to show good growth rates. Many small-scale decisions to exaggerate, even slightly, figures for personal gain or prestige have over time compounded and led to a discrepancy of significant importance to national statistics. A number of key informants view a downward restatement of crop production levels as currently unacceptable at a senior political level. District Level At a district level a data gathering process exists that is both disconnected and inconsistent with the national level. Field extension workers perform initial data collection. These government employees work with Parish level Chiefs and Local Councilors to record the number of plots being grown. The number of plots is passed to the District Agricultural Officer (DAO). Totals for the number of plots are multiplied by a yield estimate to give district production. In the two districts visited 1 It is estimated that a 20% reduction in agricultural production would bring about a fall in total GDP of approximately 5% 14
Table 19. Comparison of District and National Level Crop Production Statistics Iganga District Crop 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Maize 117,634 113,084 127,490 180,881 143,690 134,506 154,319 168,000 MAAIF 62,011 66,607 55,372 53,986 67,410 76,821 79,958 n/a Difference 55,623 46,477 72,118 126,895 76,280 57,685 74,361 Cassava 136,020 146,210 119,930 150,200 136,080 310,000 153,241 122,710 MAAIF 155,549 166,318 167,889 171,329 239,606 364,570 371,375 n/a Difference -19,529 -20,108 -47,959 -21,129 -103,526 -54,570 -218,134 Millet 34,033 400,002 29,103 67,094 36,752 40,165 48,615 51,300 MAAIF 47,768 49,491 34,456 39,311 50,274 47,455 41,817 n/a Difference -13,735 350,511 -5,353 27,783 -13,522 -7,290 6,798 Sorghum 5,016 11,484 9,780 25,689 11,892 14,763 9,738 20,682 MAAIF 9,863 10,091 7,536 7,435 10,621 10,444 9,129 n/a Difference -4,847 1,393 2,244 18,254 1,271 4,319 609 Rice 13,451 39,600 26,046 49,497 46,833 48,702 44,769 54,000 MAAIF 4,213 4,238 4,487 4,377 4,924 5,198 5,909 n/a Difference 9,238 35,362 21,559 45,120 41,909 43,504 38,860 Sweet Potato 143,905 215,052 127,398 401,904 354,684 367,056 353,814 390,000 MAAIF 118,087 123,301 85,861 105,052 120,693 130,566 133,007 Difference 25,818 91,751 41,537 296,852 233,991 236,490 220,807 Banana 14,756 50,400 8,806 25,865 27,405 30,373 28,077 35,000 MAAIF 206,809 219,266 222,478 226,346 226,711 217,733 229,387 236,784 Difference -192,053 -168,866 -213,672 -200,481 -199,306 -187,360 -201,310 -201,784 Ground Nuts 6,889 14,700 12,193 29,312 30,409 34,137 29,969 30,000 MAAIF 5,865 5,948 5,163 3,759 5,783 5,659 5,411 n/a Difference 1,024 8,752 7,030 25,553 24,626 28,478 24,558 SimSim 39 442 118 124 140 158 160 200 MAAIF - - - - - - - - Soya beans 3,689 37,200 3,439 15,855 12,827 14,258 15,539 16,500 MAAIF 12,426 13,088 14,414 13,917 15,242 16,734 19,881 n/a Difference -8,737 24,112 -10,975 1,938 -2,415 -2,476 -4,342 Beans 69,575 13,750 18,299 35,826 39,514 34,137 29,969 30,000 MAAIF 9,196 9,488 5,693 5,376 9,414 9,755 10,217 n/a Difference 60,379 4,262 12,606 30,450 30,100 24,382 19,752 15
Page 1 and 2: Short Term Technical Assistance, Ma
Page 3 and 4: List of Tables Table 1. List of Cro
Page 5 and 6: 1 INTRODUCTION This report is an ou
Page 7 and 8: 4 BASELINE PRODUCTION INFORMATION F
Page 9 and 10: Table 8. Annual Production of Sorgh
Page 11 and 12: Table 14. Annual Production of Iris
Page 13: Table 18. Approximate Annual Crop P
Page 17 and 18: yield estimates used in the past fi
Page 19 and 20: sampling methods to generate nation
Page 21 and 22: 6 OPTION FOR THE PROCESS OF CONSTRU
Page 23 and 24: 7 THE WAY FORWARD 1 Enhancement of
Page 25 and 26: References Collinson, C., Wanda, K.
Page 27 and 28: Annex 1. Scope of Work Improving Ma
Page 29 and 30: Annex 2. Production Data disaggrega
Page 31 and 32: Maize UBOS Crop Survey Module 1999/
Page 33 and 34: Finger Millet UBOS Crop Survey Modu
Page 35 and 36: Sesame MAAIF Production of Sesame (
Page 37 and 38: Beans UBOS Crop Survey Module 1999/
Page 39 and 40: Rice MAAIF Production of Rice (MT)
Page 41 and 42: Cow Peas MAAIF Production of Cow Pe
Page 43 and 44: Annual Maize Exports 1995 - 2002 Ex
Page 45 and 46: Monthly Bean Export Volumes 2000 to
Page 47 and 48: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA : IMPORTS OF SEL
Page 49 and 50: YEAR 2001 NET WEIGHT ( KGS) DESCRIP
Page 51 and 52: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA: EXPORTS OF SELE
Page 53 and 54: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA: EXPORTS OF SELE
Page 55 and 56: Annex 4 Support to Strengthen Agric
Page 57 and 58: (h) A contract between Statistics N
Page 59 and 60: Andrew Kizito Muganga Project Coord
Page 61 and 62: Venie Tinkumanya Agricultural Deput

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