Crop production data and forecasts system in ... - Foodnet - cgiar

5 DATA CREDIBILITY
5.1 Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Agriculture, Animal
Industry and Fisheries
UBOS with MAAIF produce annual crop production statistics that are included in the
Statistical Abstract. UBOS have also produced a separate Crop Survey Module in
1995/6 and 1999/2000. Construction of Statistical Abstract production figures is
discussed first followed by the Crop Survey Modules.
5.1.1 Generation of Crop Production Statistics for the Statistical
Abstract
National Level
The current method of calculating annual crop production figures (included in
sections 3 and 4) begins at a national level with the creation of crop totals for national
production. Senior members of UBOS and MAAIF create these initial national
figures, which feed into National GDP statistics 1 . The totals agreed upon are
subjective using past trends adjusted for the year’s weather. MAAIF then performs a
disaggregation of national totals for each crop to a district level (Annex 2) based on
production distribution in 1992.
The crop production figures generated by the above method have led to a significant
exaggeration of production. This has be seen in section 4 by comparing Statistical
Abstract figures with the more reliable Crop Survey Module, IDEA Project, Private
Sector and Commodity study results. Agricultural statistical data from UBOS /
MAAIF is commonly recognised as being ‘weak, vulnerable, unsustainable and
unable to meet data users' needs’ (UBOS 2003).
National crop production levels are political with senior politicians wanting to show
good growth rates. Many small-scale decisions to exaggerate, even slightly, figures
for personal gain or prestige have over time compounded and led to a discrepancy of
significant importance to national statistics. A number of key informants view a
downward restatement of crop production levels as currently unacceptable at a senior
political level.
District Level
At a district level a data gathering process exists that is both disconnected and
inconsistent with the national level. Field extension workers perform initial data
collection. These government employees work with Parish level Chiefs and Local
Councilors to record the number of plots being grown. The number of plots is passed
to the District Agricultural Officer (DAO). Totals for the number of plots are
multiplied by a yield estimate to give district production. In the two districts visited
1
It is estimated that a 20% reduction in agricultural production would bring about a fall in total GDP of
approximately 5%
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