Crop production data and forecasts system in ... - Foodnet - cgiar

More documents

Recommendations

Info

emoved the central power that had extracted information from a district level. Pre decentralisation a system of monthly and annual returns went from the district officers to MAAIF Figure 2. Pre Decentralisation Agricultural Data Flow District 1 District 2 District 3 Figure 3. Post Decentralisation Agricultural Data Flow District 1 District 2 District 3 District Administration MAAIF Office of the Prime Minister MAAIF Since decentralisation the information path is not so direct or clear (Figure 3). The link between the districts and MAAIF has disconnected with information ‘swimming’ in the district administration mixed in political and technical issues. As data is attached to resource allocation issues it may be passed to the Office of the Prime Minister rather than MAAIF. Support to Strengthen Agricultural Statistics To improve the current data collection situation a three-year 'Support to Strengthen Agricultural Statistics Project (SSASP)’ is operational (see details in Annex 4). This project is funded under a grant from the Royal Government of Norway (US$ 1.8 million). The SSASP will contribute towards building a national agricultural statistical system that will provide statistical data and information required by government and other users. This system should be of value to the creation and maintenance of a monthly food balance sheet. 5.1.2 Crop Survey Modules 1995 / 6 and 1999 / 2000 The Crop Survey modules form part a series of household surveys initiated in 1992/3. The 1999/2000 module was a nation-wide sample survey covering about 8,400 farming households. The surveys are performed at a field level using statistical 18
sampling methods to generate national production estimates disaggregated into four regions of Uganda (Annex 2). Coefficients of variation (CVs) are used in the 1999 / 2000 report to evaluate data reliability with CVs higher than 20% seen as unattractive. Estimated CVs given in the crop module report show that ‘at the national level coefficients of variation are generally low indicating that the estimates are precise’ (UBOS Crop Survey Module 2000). Key informants view Crop Survey statistics as credible. Crop surveys show greater consistency with production statistics produced by other organisations. The 1999 / 2000 Crop Survey module represents a valuable resource for determination of baseline crop production. 5.2 FAO Data The FAO rely on data supplied by MAAIF and UBOS. FAO production statistics are thus exposed to the same caveats that blight MAAIF / UBOS data. 5.3 IDEA Project Data The IDEA project produces seasonal production statistics and monthly import and export figures for maize and beans. Export data is also available for matooke cooking bananas to international markets. Production forecasts are produced for maize and bean crops. 5.3.1 Forecasting District and National Maize and Bean Production Maize and bean forecasts focus on districts covered by the IDEA project. Crop specialists who have a detailed local knowledge of the districts covered produce the forecasts. Hectare estimates are based on UBOS / MAAIF crop area data from 1981 to 1996. These area estimates are adjusted according to recent field observation giving an estimate of current area planted by district. Project crop specialists regularly assess field conditions when they visit the relevant districts. The area planted figure is multiplied by a yield estimate to give a forecast of production. The IDEA Project crop specialist determines the yield estimate based on recent field observation. To achieve a national figure district figures are summed, estimates for districts falling outside of the IDEA project rely on historic UBOS / MAAIF data. The IDEA staff themselves view the district and national level production statistics for maize and beans as insufficiently accurate. Accuracy is particularly lost through the estimation of crop area. The project has tried physically measuring crop areas with tape measures but found this impractical. National figures include production from districts where the actual situation is little known. Traders interviewed confirmed the view that IDEA national production figures are insufficiently accurate. It is however generally perceived that the IDEA national production estimates are generally more reliable than current monthly UBOS / MAAIF statistics. 19
Page 1 and 2: Short Term Technical Assistance, Ma
Page 3 and 4: List of Tables Table 1. List of Cro
Page 5 and 6: 1 INTRODUCTION This report is an ou
Page 7 and 8: 4 BASELINE PRODUCTION INFORMATION F
Page 9 and 10: Table 8. Annual Production of Sorgh
Page 11 and 12: Table 14. Annual Production of Iris
Page 13 and 14: Table 18. Approximate Annual Crop P
Page 15 and 16: Table 19. Comparison of District an
Page 17: yield estimates used in the past fi
Page 21 and 22: 6 OPTION FOR THE PROCESS OF CONSTRU
Page 23 and 24: 7 THE WAY FORWARD 1 Enhancement of
Page 25 and 26: References Collinson, C., Wanda, K.
Page 27 and 28: Annex 1. Scope of Work Improving Ma
Page 29 and 30: Annex 2. Production Data disaggrega
Page 31 and 32: Maize UBOS Crop Survey Module 1999/
Page 33 and 34: Finger Millet UBOS Crop Survey Modu
Page 35 and 36: Sesame MAAIF Production of Sesame (
Page 37 and 38: Beans UBOS Crop Survey Module 1999/
Page 39 and 40: Rice MAAIF Production of Rice (MT)
Page 41 and 42: Cow Peas MAAIF Production of Cow Pe
Page 43 and 44: Annual Maize Exports 1995 - 2002 Ex
Page 45 and 46: Monthly Bean Export Volumes 2000 to
Page 47 and 48: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA : IMPORTS OF SEL
Page 49 and 50: YEAR 2001 NET WEIGHT ( KGS) DESCRIP
Page 51 and 52: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA: EXPORTS OF SELE
Page 53 and 54: URA CUSTOMS UGANDA: EXPORTS OF SELE
Page 55 and 56: Annex 4 Support to Strengthen Agric
Page 57 and 58: (h) A contract between Statistics N
Page 59 and 60: Andrew Kizito Muganga Project Coord
Page 61 and 62: Venie Tinkumanya Agricultural Deput

Crop production data and forecasts system in ... - Foodnet - cgiar

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?