Crop production data and forecasts system in ... - Foodnet - cgiar

1 INTRODUCTION
This report is an output from a consultancy mission performed during the last two
weeks of March 2003 for the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS project) and
FoodNet. The work forms part of USAID/REDSO key Strategic Objective 5 (SO5)
for “Strengthening Capacities for Early Warning and Food Security Analysis in the
Greater Horn of Africa”. This strategic objective focuses on stimulating inter- and
extra-regional trade as a primary mechanism to enhance regional food security.
Further details are included in the Scope of Work contained in Annex 1.
The main objective of the mission is to assist in the development of a system to
conduct monthly crop production forecasts in Uganda. In order to manage this system
a “baseline” of production over the previous five years is required.
As existing data sources are fragmented and of various levels of credibility the key
points of the mission are to:
- Determine a key set of staple crops (cereals, roots and tubers) that require
inclusion in the Ugandan food balance sheet.
- Build a baseline of production for each crop over the last 5 years.
- Provide a short narrative supporting section summarizing the sources of data
and their credibility.
- Gather additional information required to compute a food balance sheet, viz;
stock levels, import, exports and post harvest losses.
- Advise on the process of constructing regular monthly updates of estimated
production levels.
2 METHODOLOGY
Determination of key crops was an iterative process performed with senior FEWS
project and FoodNet staff. Available data was collected from the USAID IDEA
project, Ugandan Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industries and
Fisheries, Ugandan Revenue Authority Customs, various commodity studies and key
informants. Two districts were visited and the District Agricultural Officer
interviewed to acquire an understanding of government data collection procedures. A
half-day informal meeting was also held between FEWS Net, FoodNet and IDEA
Project representatives. This meeting discussed results and identified future activities
necessary to move towards generating a crop production “baseline”.
The report continues by listing key staple crops for inclusion in the Ugandan food
balance sheet. Annual crop production information is provided for each crop with
disaggregation given in annexes. Data credibility is discussed followed by a suggested
range of options for future action. Recommendations are presented in the form of a
suggested way forward.
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