IPCC Expert Meeting on Geoengineering

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Annex 5: Breakout Group Reports 4. International scope - Does the action take place and have its undesired impacts solely within the sovereign territory of the party taking the action, or does it unavoidably affect other countries or the global commons (e.g., atmosphere or open oceans)? On one or more of these bases, some approaches (e.g., afforestation, energy technologies such as bioenergy) can be excluded from immediate global assessment (or relegated to a second tier, where they are noted but not assessed in depth), though they may need comprehensive local assessment (e.g., a national environmental impact assessment for action on Carbon Capture and Storage), potentially with global assessment at a later stage. Technologies for potential consideration in the AR5 Predominantly land-based actions 1. Enhanced weathering of silicates. Mining and finely grinding silicate minerals and dispersing them widely over terrestrial or marine ecosystems or incorporating them into agricultural soils. Among the key impacts are the massive scale of mining and transport needed. a. Calcium silicates: CaSiO 3 + CO 2 -> CaCO 3 + SiO 2 b. Olivine: MgSiO 4 + 4 CO 2 + 4 H 2O -> Mg 2+ + 4 HCO 3- + Si(OH) 4 2. Biochar production through pyrolysis of biomass in a reduced-oxygen environment to the point where it becomes very resistant to decomposition (half life > 1000 years) and its subsequent incorporation in agricultural soils as an amendment 3. Bioenergy production coupled with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) 4. Direct Air Capture followed by CCS 5. Land use change and management, including but not restricted to afforestation and reforestation 6. Biomass harvest and burial in anoxic environments, such as deep oceans, lakes or bogs Predominantly ocean-based actions 1. Deep or intermediate injection of CO 2 in oceans as CO 2 or as hydrates 2. Fertilisation of the oceans with iron or other nutrients 3. Addition of alkalinity to the ocean, alone or in conjunction with CO 2 injection a. Adding finely crushed CaCO 3 directly b. Converting CaCO 3 to CaO (added to ocean) and CO 2 (put into CCS) c. Actions involving silicates (see land discussion) d. Cooling and fertilising of surface ocean by pumping up deep water Overview of possible criteria for assessment 1. Potential magnitude (Pg C) and rate (Pg C/yr) of removal associated with technology a. Technical (upper) vs realisable/realistic/market potentials 2. Timescales of a. deployment (technology readiness, time to build infrastructure), b. operation (for how long will this need to occur) c. reversion of atmospheric CO 2 if you stop doing it (‘relaxation time’) d. time-lag between doing it and seeing benefits (over what timescale do you assess the effects?) <strong>IPCC</strong> <strong>Expert</strong> <strong>Meeting</strong> on Geoengineering - 79
Annex 5: Breakout Group Reports 3. Scale: a. Geographic extent of activity and its intended and unintended consequences b. What is the minimum unit size (not geographical, but in terms of Pg C/yr) to be viable and what is the potential for starting small and benefitting from learning curves? c. How does the technology scale? Is there a maximum size, a diminishing effectiveness with size or increasing effectiveness with size (economies/diseconomies of scale)? d. Where is the technology currently with respect to scale: laboratory-, pilot-, or full-scale? 4. Net consequences for the climate system a. temperature, precipitation, radiation (amount and the split between diffuse and direct radiation), CO 2 atm b. effects on climate variability (including diurnal and seasonal variation) and extremes c. regional differences in outcomes d. full Life Cycle Analysis including all relevant direct and indirect environmental impacts 5. Impacts, including benefits, on systems other than the climate system, whether intended or unintended a. Global to regional-scale impacts, e.g., on ocean acidification, food production (including fisheries), or biodiversity b. regional to local impacts, e.g., on ecosystem services, pollution, and land changes due to mining and infrastructure 6. Costs (including economic benefits) a. Include both financial (private) costs and full (public) costs. b. Differentiate between the entry cost versus the final costs for large-scale implementation. The group noted the patchiness of the literature on costs, which is very sparse for some technologies. 7. Social acceptability 8. Risk of rapid leakage of CO 2, either by unforeseen failures or following discontinuation of action 9. Verification a. Can the claimed level of the activity be verified? b. Is it having the claimed and intended climate effect (attribution)? c. Can the associated impacts be monitored and attributed? 10. Legal issues a. conflict with existing treaties b. sovereignty c. equity d. Liability, responsibility 11. Current level of scientific knowledge/uncertainty, and what is it based on? a. Theory, simulation studies, small scale experimentation, or realistic-scale tests? References Schneider S.H., 2001: Earth systems engineering and management. Nature 409, 417–421. The Royal Society, 2009: Geoengineering the climate: Science, governance and uncertainty. Royal Society, London, UK. 82 pp., (ISBN: 9780854037735). <strong>IPCC</strong> <strong>Expert</strong> <strong>Meeting</strong> on Geoengineering - 80
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IPCC Expert Meeting on Geoengineering

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