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IPCC Expert Meeting on Geoengineering

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Annex 5: Breakout Group Reports<br />

Locally or regi<strong>on</strong>ally targeted SRM<br />

It was suggested that localized and/or regi<strong>on</strong>ally focused impact remediati<strong>on</strong> with targeted SRM may also be c<strong>on</strong>sidered;<br />

for example, there is some literature <strong>on</strong> the use of SRM to cool the Arctic. It was unclear where in the AR5 this type of<br />

focused regi<strong>on</strong>al interventi<strong>on</strong> could be covered, that is, would it require a separate category or fall under the definiti<strong>on</strong> of<br />

SRM? (N.B. geoengineering is usually defined as having large-scale or global impact).<br />

Overlaps<br />

There was a brief discussi<strong>on</strong> about potential overlap of topics such as ec<strong>on</strong>omics, between Working Groups II and III. It was<br />

suggested that ethical questi<strong>on</strong>s may be discussed in Working Group II as well as III.<br />

Definiti<strong>on</strong>s of Mitigati<strong>on</strong> and Adaptati<strong>on</strong><br />

There was discussi<strong>on</strong> about the <str<strong>on</strong>g>IPCC</str<strong>on</strong>g> definiti<strong>on</strong> of 'mitigati<strong>on</strong>', whether it refers to emissi<strong>on</strong>s reducti<strong>on</strong>s or whether it is a<br />

more general term. The <str<strong>on</strong>g>IPCC</str<strong>on</strong>g> Working Group III AR4 definiti<strong>on</strong> is:<br />

“Technological change and substituti<strong>on</strong> that reduce resource inputs and emissi<strong>on</strong>s per unit of output. Although several<br />

social, ec<strong>on</strong>omic and technological policies would produce an emissi<strong>on</strong> reducti<strong>on</strong>, with respect to Climate Change,<br />

mitigati<strong>on</strong> means implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissi<strong>on</strong>s and enhance sinks.”<br />

Although a dicti<strong>on</strong>ary definiti<strong>on</strong> of the word mitigati<strong>on</strong> would generally mean reducing the impacts of something, it has<br />

come to be used by the <str<strong>on</strong>g>IPCC</str<strong>on</strong>g> to refer to emissi<strong>on</strong>s reducti<strong>on</strong>s and sink enhancement. Therefore CDR may fall under this<br />

definiti<strong>on</strong> but not SRM, even though ordinary usage of the word mitigati<strong>on</strong> may include SRM. It was suggested that the<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>IPCC</str<strong>on</strong>g> definiti<strong>on</strong> of mitigati<strong>on</strong> should not be changed to include SRM, not least because SRM does not affect atmospheric<br />

c<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong>s of greenhouse gases. This then led <strong>on</strong> to a discussi<strong>on</strong> about whether SRM is a form of adaptati<strong>on</strong>. The <str<strong>on</strong>g>IPCC</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

Working Group III AR4 definiti<strong>on</strong> of adaptati<strong>on</strong> is:<br />

“Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate<br />

change effects. Various types of adaptati<strong>on</strong> exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, private and public and aut<strong>on</strong>omous and<br />

planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes, the substituti<strong>on</strong> of more temperature-shock resistant plants for<br />

sensitive <strong>on</strong>es, etc.“<br />

Although SRM could be c<strong>on</strong>sidered a type of adaptati<strong>on</strong> (to climate change) it was suggested that SRM should be<br />

distinguished from adaptati<strong>on</strong> in the AR5.<br />

Baselines and reference scenarios<br />

Identifying the baselines or reference cases used in SRM literature is important but can be difficult. For Working Group I,<br />

the GEOMIP modelling experiments are an example where c<strong>on</strong>sistent baselines are used. However, much of the modelling<br />

work <strong>on</strong> SRM uses a variety of baselines and reference scenarios (such as 2xCO 2, 4xCO 2, ramping up or not). For Working<br />

Group II it is likely to be difficult to find a c<strong>on</strong>sistent baseline or reference case across the literature. Similarly, for Working<br />

Group III (e.g., governance, ec<strong>on</strong>omics, risk and ethics) the relevance of baselines may need to be discussed even if the<br />

literature is not entirely explicit or c<strong>on</strong>sistent. Across all Working Groups, analysis of SRM may need to compare scenarios,<br />

such as with or without SRM. A suggesti<strong>on</strong> was made to c<strong>on</strong>sider the impacts of SRM with reference to different<br />

Representative C<strong>on</strong>centrati<strong>on</strong> Pathways (RCPs), that is, would SRM cause a shift from <strong>on</strong>e set of RCP impacts to another,<br />

and what novel impacts would be caused by SRM? It was c<strong>on</strong>cluded that it is very important to be transparent about the<br />

reference cases and baseline assumpti<strong>on</strong>s.<br />

References<br />

Kravitz B., Alan Robock, O. Boucher, H. Schmidt, K.E. Taylor, G. Stenchikov, and M. Schulz, 2011: The <strong>Geoengineering</strong><br />

Model Intercomparis<strong>on</strong> Project (GeoMIP). Atmospheric Science Letters 12, 162–167. (DOI: 10.1002/asl.316).<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>IPCC</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Expert</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Meeting</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>Geoengineering</strong> - 90

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