Boxoffice® Pro - March 2014

Will the $265 million hit Gravity win the big prize on March 2 and make
our top five all-time list or will 12 Years a Slave grab gold and become
one of the lowest-grossing winners ever?
Awards season brings out the critic in everyone. Hollywood
hoists its glitz and glamour in tribute to what certain corners
of the industry consider the “best” of the year, while movie
fans get a chance to pick apart every reason the industry is wrong
or right.
Should Shakespeare in Love have won the 1998 Best Picture
Oscar over Saving Private Ryan? Should The Shawshank Redemption
or Pulp Fiction have won instead of the victorious Forrest
Gump in 1994? These are two of the most passionate Oscar arguments
within film circles in recent history. The latest question
fueling the fires of debate: should the Academy revert back to its
previous five-nominee system?
The story behind the debate is relatively short: The Dark
Knight, one of the most popular and iconic films of the modern
box office era, failed to receive a Best Picture nomination in
2008. When the Academy expanded the field to
10 nominees beginning in 2009, many insiders
credited the decision to the realization that with
Hollywood’s most popular films often being
ignored by Oscar, the relevance of the ceremony
was slipping away. After all, for every person
who saw 2008’s Best Picture winner, Slumdog
Millionaire, nearly four saw Christopher Nolan’s
Batman sequel.
Now the debate is shifting again. Commentators
and industry experts are pondering
whether the expanded field has been a good
thing. Some are of the opinion that the category
lost its pedigree with the inclusion of films that,
in previous years, probably wouldn’t have made
the final cut of five—based on historical comparisons,
such as the consistency of frontrunners
to garner attention in other major categories like
acting, directing, writing, and editing.
by Shawn Robbins,
Forums Editor, BoxOffice.com
AVERAGE BEST
PICTURE NOMINEE
($MILLION DOMESTIC
GROSS)
2013 $82.6
2012 $111.4
2011 $69.8
2010 $135.8
2009 $170.5
2008 $70.7
2007 $71.6
2006 $59.4
2005 $49.1
2004 $80.3
Whether that camp is right or wrong is entirely subjective,
and that’s why these debates will continue. That said, if the Academy’s
goal has been to solidify the pop-culture relevancy of the
Oscars, they’ve succeeded.
From 2001 to 2008, only 10 films that grossed over $100
million domestically were nominated for Best Picture. Half of
them were made up of The Lord of the Rings trilogy and a couple
of Martin Scorsese pictures. That total of 10 represents the same
number as have been nominated in the last two years alone (six
in 2012, four in 2013). In the last five years, 23 $100-plus-million
earners have been nominated, with Avatar, Up, The Blind
Side, Toy Story 3, Inception, and Gravity representing the biggest
blockbusters to receive nods in recent years, each grossing more
than $255 million stateside. Critics who oppose the expanded
field generally agree that, with the exception of The Blind Side,
these films would have made a theoretical fivefilm
cut. That includes Gravity, which is the
highest-grossing nominee in three years.
How about this year’s American Hustle,
The Wolf of Wall Street, or Captain Phillips?
They’ve each earned between $104 million and
$135 million as of the writing of this article,
with a little more yet to come for Hustle and
Wolf—especially if either takes home one of the
big awards. These also would have been likely
nominees in a supposed five-film cut, and they
fill out the top four grossers of this year’s Best
Picture nominees.
Then we have 12 Years a Slave, Philomena,
Dallas Buyers Club, Her, and Nebraska. Those
films combined have grossed roughly half as
much as Gravity, but they still represent some
of the best reviewed films of 2013. Granted,
the studio campaign machine is a heavy factor
42 BoxOffice ® Pro The Business of Movies MARCH 2014