Direct Testimony of Thomas M. Hildebrand - Consumer Advocate ...

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Section 6: Khat ifthe Line is Bziilt?
1 If the Loudoun line is built:
The PJM system will be inherently less reliable
and more vulnerable to cascading blackouts.
PJM studies show that consumers will pay
more and generators (primarily in western PJM)
will profit more.
Changes in marginal cost will discourage new
generation in eastern PJM and encourage it in
western PJM.
This will cause a spiral of more and more major
west-to-east transmission.
Related jobs, investments, and tax revenues
will migrate from the east to the west.
Environmental damage will be greater.
Consumer Costs
If the Loudoun line is built, regional transmission congestion may be reduced.
But a PJM study shows that ratepayers will pay more for power and generators
will make more profits.I7 To demonstrate this we must analyze the PJM study
and the Byzantine PJM market process. We regret that these are complex. The
complexities have kept people from understanding what will really happen.
When congestion occurs in PJM, the price of electricity in the bulk markets goes
up dramatically. To keep generators from reaping windfall profits, and to protect
ratepayers, part of the price increase is captured by PJM and reimbursed to the
ratepayers through "financial transmission rights" or FTRs. The FTR payments
reduce the net costs of congestion to ratepayers.
In a 2010 test year, the PJM study shows that ratepayer payments to generators
(summed throughout PJM) will increase by $169 million if the line is built, even
though congestion is reduced. (One would think that reduced congestion would
mean lower payments. The increase is due to defects in market processes.)
In addition, generator production costs (fuel costs) will go down by $140 million.
This saving, though, is not passed through to ratepayers. Rather, the generators
" "Market Efficiency Analysis Preliminary Results," PJM TEAC committee report, Feb. 21, 2007.
Later versions of this report analyze a more distant future in three scenarios. Depending on
assumptions about new generation, the benefits of the Loudoun line may accrue to generators or
consumers. In the most likely scenario, the benefits accrue to the generators, at the cost of the
ratepayers, as in 2010.