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4.2 Comments
The Committee found the cost estimate to be well-advanced for this stage of the project.
The TPC range of $197-256 million (AY) is reasonable.
The NOνA location and acquisition plan are not yet finalized—this provides the highest
level of uncertainty for the project. The Integrated Project Team should work aggressively to
finalize these decisions immediately. These key decisions will help to clarify uncertainties on
the cost estimate and schedule (critical path) and should be given the highest priority. Allocation
of contingency to the CF WBS should be evaluated with the same rigor as the other elements.
Overall, the NOνA project is made up of a small number of systems and procurements.
Areas of cost risk that require attention are:
• Scintillator and PVC—Tied to volatile oil prices.
• WLSF—Single vendor recently increased price to approximately 60 percent from
earlier estimates. A quote is now available, but there remains currency and single
vendor risks. Work is progress to solicit alternative vendors.
• Site Improvements/Building—Design/Build strategy is proposed to ensure that the
science requirements are clearly identified and confirmed with collaboration.
• Integration—Emphasize early prototyping of the Near and Far Detectors to ensure
defects (or value engineering) are identified early on.
• Quality Control/Database Management—Many parts repeated up to 20,000 times.
Additional staff, testing, and documentation may be required.
• Spares to account for infant mortality (electronics) and breakage/defects to achieve
CD-4.
The project is using an effective methodology for contingency. Assessment is reasonable
in most areas and should be repeated prior to CD-2, incorporating decisions on the site location,
building, and acquisition strategy. The 100 percent contingency assessment on integration labor
should be reviewed for accuracy.
The detailed Basis of Estimate (BOE) was not fully documented. Although, it is not
necessary for CD-1, a comprehensive BOE (with quotations and detailed estimates) is required
for CD-2.
Project Office staff currently have off-project responsibilities that may create a
bottleneck in configuration control and management processes. Prior to CD-2, staffing should be
reviewed to ensure key configuration and QA staffing needs are adequate.
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