Jamaica: Macro-Socio-Economic and Environmental Assessment of ...

I. INTRODUCTION
The Meteorological Phenomenon
On September 2, 2004 Tropical Depression Number Nine formed over the eastern tropical
Atlantic, just about 890 km southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This was later to threaten the
island of Jamaica as a powerful Category 5 hurricane named Ivan.
The Depression moved on a near westward track over the next few days while rapidly gaining
strength and became a Tropical Storm within 12 hours during the morning of September 3. At
this point the system was setting up to become a classical “Cape Verde Hurricane”, which is one
that forms near the Cape Verde Islands and then
proceeds on a west-bound track, crossing into the
Caribbean Sea before recurring to the Northeast. By
4:00 a.m. on September 5, Hurricane Ivan had developed
near 1950 km east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles with
sustained winds of about 120 km/h and the five-day
projection placed Ivan within the Caribbean. Ivan’s
position and movement were of major concern for all
interests in the central Caribbean.
5-DAY FORECAST TRACK for
Recognizing the possible threat to Jamaica, the
Meteorological Service Division of the country’s Ministry of Land and Environment issued an
Evacuation Order for all cays and banks at 8:00 a.m. on September 8 (Bulletin #5), a Hurricane
Watch for the island at 5:00 p.m. on September 8 (Bulletin #8) and a Hurricane Warning
(Bulletin #12) at 8:00 a.m. on September 9, 2004. This was downgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning (Bulletin #32) at 11:00 p.m. on September 11, and eventually lifted in Bulletin #35 at
11:00 a.m. the following day.
Hurricane Ivan’s approach continued through
September 10 with the tropical cyclone nearing southcentral
Jamaica. At 11:00 p.m. the eye of the
hurricane was located approximately 40 kilometres
south of Hellshire Point in the parish of St. Catherine.
It later made its closest pass to the island; nearly 30
kilometres to the south of Portland Point, Clarendon.
Thereafter, an unexpected wobble to the west during
the morning of September 11 kept the centre of the
THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN
system just off the southern coastline for the next 6-8 hours.
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