Volcanoes - Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management

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experts and workshopped through the probabilities, we cannot get away from the fact that we do have a major problem in the hazard field with volcanoes. Now that the CDEM Act 2002 is a reality, we have formed our Bay of Plenty Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Group. Along with the support of the Coordinating Executive Group (CEG) our relevant working groups are going through a very robust process of deciding on the hazards affecting the Bay of Plenty Region, with volcanic eruption high on the list. RESEARCH INDICATORS Major earthquake and volcanic features of the Bay of Plenty occur. How prepared will the community be? How prepared will those vested with the responsibility of Civil Defence Emergency Management be? The problem will not go away. The community must be resilient and accept that there are precautions and measures we all must take. The effects of a volcanic eruption and the effects of a distal eruption have been well researched over the past few years. Environment Bay of Plenty has commissioned a number of studies with the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS) and universities. These studies have proved to be invaluable in coming to grips with the magnitude of the problem. A number of graduates have prepared theses for Doctorates and Masters Degrees on various aspects of the effects of the “Big One”. This big one being a volcano rather than our other major hazard of earthquakes. The fact that these people are interested in delving into the reasons why, and the possible effects of volcanic activity has certainly been a huge asset for those deciding on an emergency management approach. Having ploughed through the valuable data available and sought the advice of the The 1315AD eruption from Mt. Tarawera was the largest volcanic episode to have occurred in New Zealand in the last 1000 years. Environment Bay of Plenty held a “Kaharoa Eruption Hazards Workshop” in October 2000 where the event was studied and implications drawn for a present day scenario. The results, as found by Russ Martin and Ian Nairn for “Volcanic Hazard Planning” in summary were: • The need to manage lengthy pre-eruption phases (1-10 years duration), with the likelihood of false alarms, conflicting scientific views on the likely outcome, sensational media treatment, public anxiety, and possibly severe adverse local economic effects. • The need to make detailed plans for an impending event of unknown start time, size, duration and (wind-controlled) ashfall scenarios. • The need to manage a long-duration eruption with multiple large explosive events so that some areas receive repeated ashfalls over several months. • How to recognise (and guarantee) that the eruption has ended. • Assessment of the necessity and feasibility of engineering intervention to reduce post-eruption flooding and sedimentation hazards. • The post-eruption impact on local government in the region and its functions. • When to start on clean-up operations, how to fund these, and how to select the priority areas. • How to manage the situation of accommodating and rehabilitating perhaps up to 200,000 evacuees from the region? We can see from the above that the hazard implications are a grave cause for concern. For a Project Manager such as myself with the task of editing and putting together the Bay of Plenty Civil Defence Emergency Management Group Plan, these studies are invaluable. Our Plan will go a long way to make the critical decision-making easier. As we read through the implications, the enormity of a volcanic eruption quickly becomes apparent. We are not talking about days, weeks or months but possibly years before anyone is allowed 54 TEPHRA June 2004
to return. How are we going to cope with the large number of evacuees? Under the new Group arrangements, the benefits are that we all pool all our resources, share our concerns, investigate the likelihood of certain events or hazards occurring and then plan to fulfil the Reduction, Readiness, Response and Recovery action. THE EVACUATION PROCESS Imagine the evacuation process for a moment. Shifting many displaced people from one location to a safer location. How are you going to get there? Are the roads open? Have the rail links been affected? Are there enough rolling stock and other forms of bulk transport available to shift the livestock? What roads are open? How many bridges are still operational? Where are the detours? How prepared are those communities outside the disaster area to take such vast numbers. The sheer logistics of the operation starts to sink in. What lifelines are still functioning? Will road transport be able to function with the presence of large amounts of ash affecting engines, electrics and brakes? Relive the evacuation of Dunkirk. Perhaps evacuation by sea may have to be part of the evacuation plan? We know for sure that our isolation in a far-flung corner of the Pacific means there will be limitations on international help. There certainly will not be convoys of trucks coming across the Tasman as would overland aid in a European disaster. Will there be enough craft to do this. What part will the weather play. So it goes on. We are fortunate that in our region there are people who experienced the Rabaul eruption of 1991. Their first hand on the ground experiences have been well documented giving a realistic translation of events and what impacts they would have if such a catastrophic event occurred in our more densely population region. In 1996, GNS published a Science Report entitled “Guidelines for developing a response to a volcanic crisis in the Bay of Plenty”, co-authored by D M Johnston, B J Scott and B F Houghton. The aim of the report was to identify significant issues that need to be considered in developing a response to a volcanic crisis affecting the Bay of Plenty region. It should be noted that volcanologists as stated in this report refer to a “volcanic crisis” as the whole realm of events concerned with the awakening of a volcano, the building up to an eruption, the eruption and the aftermath as the affected region/area recovers.” This of course covers the steps any plan must have for a comprehensive emergency management approach, part of an ‘all hazards’ strategy, linking mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Plans above all must be simple and flexible, focusing on principles rather than details. An excellent observation made in the report was that ‘the contingency planning Okataina Volcanic Centre process is a continuous one (ie. the plan is never complete). The report describes evacuation and evacuation planning as follows: Evacuations usually involve four types of movement: 1. Self-evacuation where people move out in their own vehicles or with friends/relatives. 2. Movement of people who do not own or have access to private vehicles. 3. Movement of people from institutions (hospitals, but no prisons in Bay of Plenty). 4. Movement of people with handicaps who require specialized vehicles. Emergency planning must make provisions for all of these. 55 TEPHRA June 2004
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Page 51 and 52: ASHFALL IMPACT SCENARIO 300mm (30cm
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Volcanoes - Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management

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