The Price of Illicit Drugs: 1981 through the - The White House

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difficulty this causes is that STRIDE data provide no basis for adjusting price changes for marijuana’s quality. Figure 9 is the counterpart to figures 1 (cocaine), 4 (heroin) and 7 (methamphetamine). This figure reports price estimates for marijuana distributed at four levels: 0 to 10 bulk grams 10 to 100 bulk grams 100 to 1000 bulk grams 1000 bulk grams and more At the lowest distribution level, price is estimated for the typical purchase of 3.1 grams of marijuana, which might represent about six typical joints. Dividing the typical prices observed during the past few years by six suggests that a joint cost about $2.50 during the later 1990s. The same joint (ignoring quality differences) probably cost about $1.25 to $1.50 in the early 1980s. Price at the second lowest price level is evaluated for a purchase of 35 grams, which is slightly more than an ounce. Many marijuana users buy the drug in ounce bundles, so prices estimated for this level probably represent retail level purchases, albeit relatively large ones, and certainly many sales among dealers. A purchase at the ounce level probably cost about $150 in the late 1990s. It probably cost more like $80 in the early 1980s. Conclusions Trends in illicit drug prices provide important information about the success of the Nation’s supply-based anti-drug programs. Illicit drug prices are many magnitudes higher than would otherwise be the case were there no effective source zone, interdiction, and domestic law enforcement programs. That is good news. So, too, are the occasional spikes in drug prices that appear to result from successful source zone and interdiction programs. More disconcerting is the Nation’s apparent inability to affect long-term increases in illicit drug prices, which have fallen or remained fairly constant since the early 1990s. As the Nation moves to reduce illicit drug use, even a constant or declining trend in drug prices could be consistent with a successful supply-based program. If demand-based programs can reduce the market for illicit substances, especially by hardcore users who appear to provide most of the demand, then future drug prices could fall as suppliers seek to sell to fewer buyers. But the prevalence of hardcore drug use has not 12
declined much since the early 1990s, so decreased demand is an unlikely explanation of past trends. Supply-based programs have been remarkably successful at keeping illicit drug prices at very high levels, but not so successful at pushing them higher during the 1990s. Only the future will reveal whether or not new supply-based programs can build on the experience and success of old programs. 13
Page 1: The Price of Illicit Drugs: 1981 th
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents Introduction.....
Page 7 and 8: Table C8. Annual Heroin Price and P
Page 9: Acknowledgements The authors and st
Page 12 and 13: transit zone programs almost certai
Page 14 and 15: The System To Retrieve Information
Page 16 and 17: Secondly, even if the raw data over
Page 18 and 19: same month, and an increase of $0.0
Page 20 and 21: purchases, at least as reflected by
Page 24 and 25: References Box G.E., Jenkins G.M.,
Page 27 and 28: Figure 1: Estimated Cocaine Price P
Page 29 and 30: Figure 3: Estimated Cocaine Purity
Page 31 and 32: Figure 5: Comparison of Heroin Reta
Page 33 and 34: Figure 7: Estimated Methamphetamine
Page 35: Figure 9: Estimated Marijuana Price
Page 38 and 39: Table 1: Estimated Quarterly Price
Page 54 and 55: Table 7: Estimated Annual Price per
Page 56 and 57: Table 9: Estimated Annual Price per
Page 58 and 59: Figure A1. Flow Chart for STRIDE an
Page 60 and 61: the subsequent removal of extreme r
Page 62 and 63: From the viewpoint of the model, th
Page 64 and 65: Table A5. Mean Price and Parameter
Page 66 and 67: 200 180 160 Number of Observat ions
Page 68 and 69: Corresponding predicted real prices
Page 70 and 71: model because each purity observati
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Figure A4. Predicted Weights for Co
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Figure A5. Monthly Retail and Whole
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The approach used to obtain the Sou
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Table B1: Estimated DAWN Weights fo
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Table B5: Comsumer Price Index, Fir
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Table C1. Annual Cocaine Price and
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Table C3. Annual Cocaine Price and
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Table C5. Annual Heroin Price and P
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Table C7. Annual Heroin Price and P
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Table C9. Annual Methamphetamine Pr
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Table C11. Annual Methamphetamine P
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Table C13. Annual Marijuana Price f
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Table C15. Annual Marijuana Price f
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The Price of Illicit Drugs: 1981 through the - The White House

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