The Price of Illicit Drugs: 1981 through the - The White House

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Figure A4. Predicted Weights for Cocaine: Cocaine, 1981-Q1 to 2000-Q2 We fit a Poisson regression model (E(y t ) = exp( + time t ) and V(y t ) = E(y t ), where y t = emergency-events at time t) to the resulting “extended” DAWN database (18 semi-annual emergency-event counts from 1988 through 1999 for 29 cities plus the Rest of U.S.) to obtain modeled counts for the 78 quarters from Q1 1981 through Q2 2000 for each city. The modeled weights were then calculated from the modeled counts in such a way that the weights in a given quarter summed to one. For example, Figure A4 shows the modeled and observed weights for Chicago. Modeling the weights achieved two objectives. Firstly, it smoothed over the random fluctuations in quarters where data existed, and secondly, it provided estimates (extrapolations and interpolations) in quarters where data was unavailable. Overall the modeled weights appeared A-16
very reasonable, particularly given that the length of the required extrapolation was nearly as long as the range of observable data. 7. The Relationship Between Retail and Wholesale Prices It is of interest to know the relationship between retail and wholesale prices. This is not a simple matter of regressing one price on the other. Rather, one must account for the fact that both variables are time series with particular correlation structures which affect each other in a possibly delayed or dynamic fashion (Box et. al, 1994). We illustrate an approach to this bivariate time series problem for cocaine prices over the last decade 1991-2000. Retail prices were based on a monthly version of the method described in section 4, and wholesale prices were based on a monthly version of the method described in section 3. The two price series are shown in Figure A5. The correlation between the two price series is 0.46, and even though this estimate is technically inappropriate, it does correctly portray the fact that both price series tend to move together. The technical problem arises because a simple correlation coefficient ignores the time series nature of the two series: its validity assumes firstly that observations in each price series are independent rather than autocorrelated, and secondly that the correlation between the two series is contemporaneous rather than delayed, dynamic (involving lags of some sort), or both. A-17
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The Price of Illicit Drugs: 1981 th
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Table of Contents Introduction.....
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Table C8. Annual Heroin Price and P
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Acknowledgements The authors and st
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transit zone programs almost certai
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The System To Retrieve Information
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Secondly, even if the raw data over
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same month, and an increase of $0.0
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purchases, at least as reflected by
Page 22 and 23: difficulty this causes is that STRI
Page 24 and 25: References Box G.E., Jenkins G.M.,
Page 27 and 28: Figure 1: Estimated Cocaine Price P
Page 29 and 30: Figure 3: Estimated Cocaine Purity
Page 31 and 32: Figure 5: Comparison of Heroin Reta
Page 33 and 34: Figure 7: Estimated Methamphetamine
Page 35: Figure 9: Estimated Marijuana Price
Page 38 and 39: Table 1: Estimated Quarterly Price
Page 54 and 55: Table 7: Estimated Annual Price per
Page 56 and 57: Table 9: Estimated Annual Price per
Page 58 and 59: Figure A1. Flow Chart for STRIDE an
Page 60 and 61: the subsequent removal of extreme r
Page 62 and 63: From the viewpoint of the model, th
Page 64 and 65: Table A5. Mean Price and Parameter
Page 66 and 67: 200 180 160 Number of Observat ions
Page 68 and 69: Corresponding predicted real prices
Page 70 and 71: model because each purity observati
Page 74 and 75: Figure A5. Monthly Retail and Whole
Page 76 and 77: The approach used to obtain the Sou
Page 78 and 79: Table B1: Estimated DAWN Weights fo
Page 106 and 107: Table B5: Comsumer Price Index, Fir
Page 108 and 109: Table C1. Annual Cocaine Price and
Page 110 and 111: Table C3. Annual Cocaine Price and
Page 112 and 113: Table C5. Annual Heroin Price and P
Page 114 and 115: Table C7. Annual Heroin Price and P
Page 116 and 117: Table C9. Annual Methamphetamine Pr
Page 118 and 119: Table C11. Annual Methamphetamine P
Page 120 and 121: Table C13. Annual Marijuana Price f
Page 122:
Table C15. Annual Marijuana Price f
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