CERFACS CERFACS Scientific Activity Report Jan. 2010 â Dec. 2011

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACT STUDIES and a model-independent objective analysis (Corre et al. 2011). Several variables were used : the mean temperature above the 14 o C isotherm, its depth and a fixed depth mean temperature (250 m mean temperature). This choice of variables provides information about the local heat absorption, vertical distribution and horizontal redistribution of heat, this latter being suggestive of changes in ocean circulation. Use of the mean temperature above the 14 o C isotherm is a convenient, albeit simple, way to isolate thermodynamical changes by filtering out dynamical changes related to thermocline vertical displacements. We have found that the global upper ocean observations and reanalyses exhibit very similar warming trends (0.045 o C per decade) over the period 1965-2005, superimposed with marked decadal variability in the 1970s and 1980s. The spatial patterns of the regression between indices (representative of anthropogenic changes and known modes of internal decadal variability), and the three variables associated with the ocean heat content are used as fingerprint to separate out the different contributions. Two robust findings result from our analysis : (1) the signature of anthropogenic changes is qualitatively different from those of the internal decadal variability associated to the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation, and (2) the anthropogenic changes in ocean heat content do not only consist of local heat absorption, but are likely related with changes in the ocean circulation, with a clear shallowing of the tropical thermocline in the Pacific and Indian oceans. 3.2 Statistical downscaling and impact studies The downscaling activities have been aimed toward application of the previously developed statistical downscaling methodology, using it for diversified climate change impact studies and research at regional to local scales. Some studies have also taken place to better understand the characteristics and the stochastic aspects of the methodology. In parallel, work has begun regarding the standardization of downscaled data, along with the development of user guidance aimed at the impact communities, as well as the development of new collaborative web portals to help dissemination. A summary of the main activities during the period 2010-2011 is given below. 3.2.1 Impact of climate change on mountainous areas in France (C. Pagé, L. Terray, M. Piazza, E. Sanchez, J. Boé) Our main objective was to adapt the DSCLIM statistical downscaling methodology to study the impacts of climate change on the mountainous areas in France, in the context of the ANR/SCAMPEI project led by Météo-France CNRM. Several geographical domains for the large-scale circulation have been evaluated by comparing the performance of downscaled precipitation to the original configuration used previously, as well as the relevance of the generated weather types. The configuration has also been standardized among the different seasons (number of weather types, mask to use only data exclusively over France, random selection of analog day within closest days). After evaluation, it has been decided to keep the original geographical domain. This result is also confirmed by the thesis results of M. Lafaysse (Lafaysse, 2011), which also stated the importance of taking into account the stochastic aspects of the methodology when working on quite small geographical domains. A new dataset have been generated given this new configuration, called SCRATCH2010, which improves DSCLIM results especially over southern Alps and along the Mediterranean coast (except for Roussillon). DSCLIM downscaled scenarios have also been compared to dynamically downscaled ARPEGE scenarios by Météo-France CNRM (using a bias correction quantile-quantile methodology). Surface feedbacks have also been studied for the present climate, and also in dynamically downscaled (non-corrected) scenarios, over the Alps and Pyrenees. Two hypothesis have resulted from this study : a) In the south, feedbacks between snow cover and temperature occur mainly in April (with a 2-month time lag), caused mostly by the generation of mist and fog which limits the solar radiation. b) In the north and east, the correlation time lag is of 6 months, and the physical process is related to the soil water content. 122 Jan. 2010 – Dec. 2011
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND GLOBAL CHANGE 3.2.2 French and European collaboration for dissemination of downscaled scenarios for impacts (C. Pagé) Two main actions have taken place for the dissemination of downscaled scenarios to the climate change impact communities in France and in Europe. The first action is the GICC/DRIAS French project, in collaboration with Météo-France and IPSL, while the second is the EU FP7 European project IS-ENES, in collaboration with more than 20 partners throughout Europe (including Météo-France and IPSL) and coordinated by IPSL. Many links were put in place between the two projects. The GICC/DRIAS project will end at the first semester of 2012, and the main outcome is a web portal to make available downscaled climate scenarios by Météo-France , IPSL and CERFACS to the French impact communities. The portal will include guidance, discovery, and data access with support. It is now included in the main objectives of Météo-France. The IS-ENES project embraces larger objectives, but one of the work package deals with bridging the gap between the climate modelling community and the impact communities. An impact interface portal is currently being designed and coded, but with somewhat different objectives than the DRIAS project portal. The main objectives of this portal is to develop standards for describing downscaled data (with links to the EU FP7 METAFOR project), as well as to develop basic data access and processing interoperable tools based on OGC and upcoming standards. The portal development is being done in close collaboration with KNMI, while the guidance documentation work is lead by SMHI and CMCC partners with CERFACS. In 2010-2011, Use Cases have been constructed, along with common tools specifications. These are the basis of the portal development, which has begun in August 2011. 3.2.3 Distribution of high-resolution scenario for impact studies (C. Pagé, L. Terray) We have used the DSCLIM software to produce an updated set (of SCRATCH08) of multi-model high resolution climate scenarios for France (at a horizontal resolution of 8 km). The DSCLIM configuration used in the ANR/SCAMPEI project have been used for this update. We have performed an updated downscaling of all CMIP3 models for the scenario SRES A1B as well as several simulations forced by a wider range of SRES scenarios made with the ARPEGE model at CNRM and SUC. Other scenarios have been downscaled, such as PRUDENCE ARPEGE scenarios (for application in the ANR/SCAMPEI project), and work has begun to also downscale all the GCM scenarios from the EU FP7 ENSEMBLES project. This set of regional scenarios, named SCRATCH10, has been primarily used for a number of applications linked to climate change impact assessment through our participation to funded projects, ranging from agronomy (ANR/ORACLE, ANR/CLIMATOR, ANR/VALIDATE), mountainous areas (ANR/SCAMPEI), hydrogeology (BRGM/LEZ), insurance (MAIF/CLIMSEC), forestry (GICC/FAST). Furthermore we have also provided SCRATCH10 data to other public and private institutions and entities in relation with their own climate impact and adaptation projects. Indeed we have always provided simultaneously the expertise on the correct use of these scenarios in order to account for the various sources of uncertainty. Several new research collaborations have been initiated, notably with Estuary Researchers (Boulogne-sur-Mer), different themes (vineyards ANR/TERVICLIM-GICC/TERADCLIM, agroclimatology, urban climatology) with the COSTEL Laboratory at Université Rennes 2 (4 thesis), hydrogeology at Université Rennes 1 (Géosciences Rennes - UMR CNRS 6118), hydrology at Université d’Orléans (INSU), biology at Université de Pau, urban pollution at CEREA, seasonal prediction at Météo-France/DCLIM, most of them being related to thesis work. Those also implies giving one two or three days training. 3.2.4 Further improvement of the DSCLIM software functionalities (C. Pagé) Given feedbacks from thesis students M. Lafaysse and S. Singla, as well as some previously identified needed functionalities, DSCLIM has been refined by adding more control in its behavior, adding new configuration parameters. Some previous technical dependencies have also been eliminated. Extensive use CERFACS ACTIVITY REPORT 123
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CERFACS Scientific Activity Report
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Table des matières 1 Foreword xiii
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9 Publications 40 9.1 Books . . . .
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3 The OpenPALM coupler 104 3.1 Intr
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Table des figures CERFACS chart as
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TABLE DES FIGURES 6 Computational F
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Foreword Welcome to the 2010-2011 S
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CERFACS STRUCTURE CERFACS organizat
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CERFACS STAFF NAME POSITION PERIOD
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CERFACS STAFF SILVA GARZON Ph.D stu
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CERFACS STAFF NAME POSITION PERIOD
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CERFACS Wide-Interest Seminars Pete
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1 Introduction 1.1 Introduction The
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT success
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT Visitor
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3 List of Members of HiePACS HiePAC
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4 Dense and Sparse Matrix Computati
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT Working
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5 Iterative Methods and Preconditio
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT 5.5 Pre
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT We are
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT is to e
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT automor
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT 7.4 Sol
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT precond
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT 7.16 An
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT solutio
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8 Conferences and Seminars 8.1 Conf
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT Decembe
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT July WC
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT Septemb
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT [ALG15]
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PARALLEL ALGORITHMS PROJECT [ALG54]
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1 Overview presentation The main ex
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ELECTROMAGNETISM AND ACOUSTICS TEAM
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Page 97 and 98: 1 Introduction Data assimilation is
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Page 115 and 116: 6 Data assimilation with EDF neutro
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Page 124 and 125: 2 The OASIS coupler The OASIS coupl
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Page 132 and 133: 4 HPC Climate modelling 4.1 General
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Page 140 and 141: 2 Climate variability and predictab
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COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS [CFD11
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COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS [CFD15
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7 Aviation and Environment
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INTRODUCTION instead of regular ker
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SIMULATIONS OF AIRCRAFT WAKES AND R
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LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
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LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
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PUBLICATIONS 4.2 Technical Reports
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CERFACS CERFACS Scientific Activity Report Jan. 2010 â Dec. 2011

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CERFACS CERFACS Scientific Activity Report Jan. 2010 â Dec. 2011