Full Release - IRmep

~ J
,
. i
·t
" 0 ALL INFOPHATImr CONT&'
HEREIN IS LmrCLASSIFIED
DEB~file- Iran-Based Al Qaeda Threat Much Closer than Shehab-3
DEBKAfile - We start where the media stop DATE 07-29-2010 BY 60324 uc baw/sab/1sg
Page 1 of2
Iran-Based AI Qaeda Threat Much Closer than Shehab-3
DEBKAflle Special Analysis
JIIly 22, 2003, 9:30 AM(GMT+02:00)
Israel has more cause for concern from the presence ofsenior alQaeda operatives in Iran than from the
prospect ofIran shooting a Shehab-3 medium-range missile any time soon, despite the handover
ceremony Iran's bellicose spiritual leader Ali Khamenei staged with Iran's Revolutionary Guards on
July 20. According to DEBKAjile's military experts, the missile is not yet operational; neither is it
precise enough or capable ofdelivering an unconventional warhead. The Shehab-3 will need another
two years at least to be ready for service. Only then, will Israel's anti-missile Arrow missile system be
required to live up to the Israeli defense minister Shaul Mofaz's encomium, that the Arrow is Israel's
answer to the Iranian missile.
Meanwhile, the Shehab-3 is meanwhile grounded by two daunting obstacles:
A. The fmal version ofthe missile's engine is far from complete; tests are still mnning on various North
Korean versions including the Nodong-l upgraged with Russian technology and Iranian improvements.
DEBKAjile's intelligence sources report that Iranian missile engineers and operators went to North
':If;' r{ 1,. .: r', • .~
'-.f. :.... ,< ~
Mussab Zarqawi - At ..
Qaeda's ticking bomb
in Iran
Korea at the end ofJune to speed delivery ofthe new engine parts ordered and paid for last year, after the first version engine
proved faulty. Some ofthe missiles test-fired crashed shortly after launch.
While pressing for delivery ofthe engine parts, Tehran is cocking an anxious ear to the war ofwords flying between
Washington and Pyongyang. Iran's leaders fear that sooner or later the disputants will come to an understanding over North
Korea's nuclear weapons program rather than letting it slide into outright confrontation. For Iran's program, this spells
curtains in more than one way.
1. The moment North Korea's nuclear program accepts a regime ofcontrols and limitations, the full blast ofinternational
heat, especially from Washington, will veer round to compel the Iranians to fall in line and give up the development ofa
nuclear bomb.
2. North Korea will be bound under such an agreement by non-proliferation clauses banning the export ofnuclear and missile
technologies alike. Once the Pyongyang door is slammed, Iran can forget about North Korean assistance in bringing its
ballistic missile engines up to scratch. Tehran is therefore racing to get what it can out ofNorth Korea before Pyongyang
resoles its dispute with the Washington.
B. The Iranian program faces another major hurdle. Their twin object is to produce enough enriched uranium for the
manufacture ofnuclear bombs and warheads by the latter halfof2005, also completing the development ofdependable
engines for their ballistic missiles in the same time frame. Ifall goes according to plan, Tehran will by that date have a
nuclear weapon plus several missiles for delivering it. However, it is hard to imagine the United States and/or Israel allowing
the Islamic RepUblic to reach that point unopposed
These difficulties place the Shehab-3 menace in the middle distance and bring the Iran-based al Qaeda threat to the Middle
East including Israel into much sharper focus.
TIle thinking in Jerusalem is that since the Islamic theocrats did not semple to give al Qaeda logistical backing from their
towns for the May 12 string ofsuicide attacks against Riyadh, they will be as willing to help the same terrorists mount strikes
against Israel. Tuesday, July 22, Tehran again denied granting the network's leading lights sanctuary, contradicting President
George W.. Bush's accusat~on the day before that Syria and Iran harbored and assisted terrorists. He also warned them they
would be held accountable.
http://www.debka.com/article..print.php?aid=527 11/29/2004