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has foiled US policy in Iraq by insisting on direct elections,.he has refusea to denounce the US
occupation and may cooperate with a UN-brokered compromise for creating an Iraqi government.
IISistani is a double-edged sword for Iran," says Juan Cole. And third, there is the Bush factor. Some
neoconservative strategists argue that Iran will act decisively in order to prevent Bush from being
re-elected. R~Ymond Tanter, a scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a pro-Israel think
tank, predicts, IIThey are going to launch a political-military campaign in an effort to defeat President
Bush, because they believe that ifBush is re-elected, he will do to them what he did to Iraq."
It's unclear that Iran would risk a confrontation with the United States in Iraq even ifthe mullahs do
believe that they are next on Bush's invasion list. But the mullahs are famous for misunderstanding US
politics, just as Americans have failed repeatedly to understand Iran's.
In a way, the neocons' Iran project is very similar to the early phase ofthe~r Iraq one. It includes a steady
drumbeat ofthreats and warnings, Washington lobbying, a media offensive and support for exile
groups--in Iran's case a mishmash that combines supporters ofKhomeini's grandson; Reza Pahlavi, the
son ofthe fallen Shah,and the Iranian monarchists; and the Mujaheddin e-Khalq (MEK), a 3,800-strong
exile force based in Iraq. In one ofthe strangest events ever to occur at a Washington think tank, last
September Khomeini's grandson--dressed in rough-hewn black and brown robes and crowned by a
turban, with dark brooding eyes like his grandfather's--took the podium at AEI, introduced by Michael
Ledeen, to call for US assistance to overthrow the Iranian government. He even welcomed an alliance
with the Pahlavi monarchists.
Many analysts view the prospects ofa Pahlavi-Khomeini-MEK alliance with exceeding skepticism. And
they note that the neocons, having bungled Iraq, don't have a lot ofcredibility left on Middle East policy.
But it,would be wrong to count them out. A former CIA officer, who took part in the debate over Iraq
policy in the 1990s recalls how the neocons.ultimately prevailed. liThe neocons had this idea ofworking
with the Iraqi opposition to arm and train them and to overthrow Saddam Husseili, and people like me
said, 'That is really stupid,'" he says. "But you get people to think about it, you get the President engaged,
then options expand and then when opportunities come along, you seize them. That's what they did. They
got people to buy in. Before September 11, people told them, 'It's never going to happen.' Come
September 12, the rules changed. tt An explosion in Iraq, and some Iranian mischiefthere, and the rules
could change again.
Robert Dreyfuss is a contributing editor o/The Nation. Laura Rozen is ajournalist who covers national
security issuesfrom Washington.
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