Exhibit 8, 100416 Brazil FMD Risk Evaluation - R-Calf

apparent [28]. Survival of both SVD and ASF viruses in genetic material is possible but is not
considered to be a primary mode of transmission [29, 30].
Based on the extended period of survival of CSF and FMD viruses in frozen semen, APHIS
considers the likelihood of exposure of susceptible animals to these viruses in infected semen, if it
were to be imported into the United States, to be high if unmitigated. However, based on the results
of the release assessment, APHIS considers the likelihood of release of CSF or FMD viruses via
infected semen from Santa Catarina to be very low. The likelihood of exposure of domestic
livestock would be similarly low.
Consequence Assessment
A consequence assessment describes the biologic and economic consequences of introducing the
hazards under consideration into the United States. This consequence assessment addresses both
direct and indirect consequences, as recommended by the OIE [20].
The magnitude of the biologic and economic consequences following an introduction of FMD, CSF,
SVD, or ASF virus would depend on the location of the introduction, the virus serotype introduced,
the rate of virus spread and whether environmental conditions at the introduction site might facilitate
this spread, the site’s ability to detect the disease rapidly, livestock demographics and movement
patterns, and the ease of employing eradication procedures. In addition, depending on the extent of
export of livestock and animal products, trade restrictions imposed by trading partners may result in
severe economic consequences [31].
Direct consequences include effects of the disease on animal health and subsequent production
losses, the total costs of control and eradication, the effect on the environment, and public health
consequences. Indirect consequences include effects on international trade and associated domestic
consequences.
Animal health consequences
FMD
FMD causes significant distress and suffering to animals regardless of the size and sophistication of
their livestock unit. Very high mortality rates in young animals can occur, particularly among pigs
and sheep. Mortality in older animals occurs less frequently but may be significant with certain
virus strains [24, 32, 33].
FMD also causes significant losses in the production capacity of affected animals. Productivity
losses of 10 percent to 20 percent are reported in FMD-infected livestock if the disease is allowed to
run its course. In addition, FMD can cause a reduction in the growth rate of animals raised for meat.
The comparatively greater severity of FMD in pigs would imply at least similar losses to those
described for cattle [31, 34].
APHIS Evaluation of the Status of the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina 65