Exhibit 8, 100416 Brazil FMD Risk Evaluation - R-Calf

CSF
CSF has acute and chronic courses. The severity of the disease depends largely on the age of the
animal and the virulence of the viral strain, with young animals usually more severely affected than
older animals. In older breeding pigs the course of infection is often mild or even subclinical,
whereas mortality rates may reach 90 percent in young pigs [35]. Low virulence strains may
manifest primarily as poor reproductive performance and birth of piglets with neurologic defects
[35].
SVD
SVD is typically a transient vesicular disease of pigs. The virus causes essentially no mortality, and
infected pigs generally recover within 1 week (on occasion, recovery may take up to 3 weeks).
Some strains produce only mild clinical symptoms or are asymptomatic. Morbidity rates may be
low throughout a whole herd but high in certain pens [29].
ASF
ASF is a highly contagious hemorrhagic disease of pigs. All age groups are equally susceptible.
With high virulence forms of the virus, ASF is characterized by high fever, loss of appetite,
hemorrhages in the skin and internal organs, and death within 2 to 10 days on average. Herd
mortality rates may be as high as 100 percent [30].
Economic consequences
The overall cost of control and eradication depends on the mitigation or policy options chosen to
control and eradicate the disease. Potential costs include costs for disease control measures such as
imposing quarantine measures and movement controls, direct costs related to stamping out of
affected herds, indemnity payments, vaccination costs, and costs for surveillance and laboratory
testing. For disease-free countries like the United States that have a substantial export market for
livestock and livestock products, the preferred option for control and eradication has traditionally
been to stamp out infected herds without the use of vaccine.
The U.S. policy for most significant foreign animal disease emergencies is to follow strict quarantine
measures and stamp out infected and contact herds. Officials also assess the need for strategic
vaccination, and carry out vaccination if necessary. Available data do not allow quantification of the
number of herds or farms that could be infected if one of the diseases under evaluation were
introduced into the United States. Nevertheless, the cost of control, eradication, and compensation is
likely to be significant.
FMD
A few studies have estimated the potential consequences of an FMD outbreak in the United States.
Bates et al (2003) used results from an FMD simulation model to estimate the direct costs associated
with indemnity, slaughter, cleaning, and disinfecting livestock premises for various vaccination and
APHIS Evaluation of the Status of the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina 66