of Photonics Technologies: the European Perspective The Leverage Effect

The Leverage Effect of Photonics Technologies: the European Perspective
from a full market driven
economy, to a governmental
supervised market.
Positioning those two main
drivers within a scenario
framework led to four scenarios.
The first scenario
shows strong economic
growth, but governmental
and public intervention is
limited. This leads to a society
and economy that is
oriented towards individual
consumer needs, where
consumers have money to
spend (Gadget world). The second scenario still has strong economic
growth, but because of governmental intervention, attention is given
to more long term societal needs (Green innovation). In the third scenario,
the consumer has a limited budget, but the consumer will be
in the driver seat for spending (Budget society. The last scenario also
shows limited economic growth, but the role of government in where
to invest is strong, leading to focus on only priority issues (Emergency).
Figure 35: The four Leverage scenarios for analysis.
Of those four worlds consistent scenario logics can be found in the following
sections, including the incorporation of the identified drivers
of change (Chapter 5). During an expert workshop, the four scenarios
were used to discuss the different value chains within different future
contexts. Especially the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and
Threats were the object of discussions.
In the following sections, the four scenarios are described.
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C.2 Scenario 1: Gadget World
This scenario depicts a high growth, high tech society that is more freemarket-driven
than the “Green Innovation” and where other consumer
interests beside ecological aspects like fun, recreation, technological experimentation,
life-style and “showing ones wealth” play an important/