of Photonics Technologies: the European Perspective The Leverage Effect

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The Leverage Effect of Photonics Technologies: the European Perspective The overall wealth of consumers declines and negatively affects industries. Access to ‘high knowledge’ human capital and new/emerging technology is rather low due to budgetary constraints. Cheap products and cheap production methods, as well as cheap imports, represent the first choice and low prices are the major criterion for consumer decisions. The overall ecological consciousness with this scenario declines, especially with consumers, but also, to a lesser extent, by governments. In settings with higher governmental intervention, e.g. in the context of environmental policy, the tendency towards “green products” remains higher, although resources to provide green technology adoption incentives are reduced. The acceptance of new technologies is rather indifferent, mainly due to the fact that they are either not available or not affordable. Risk perception is rather high, but primarily oriented towards social security, income and job security. C.5 Scenario 4: Emergency This scenario is set in a world of emergency associated with environmental and/or major conflicts including sustained terrorist attacks that lead to a scarcity in resources necessary for human existence. Although in its most dramatic form this scenario is rather unlikely in Europe or other highly developed countries, extreme weather conditions (e.g. draughts, extreme heat or cold periods, flooding, pathogens that affect humans, animals or plants etc.) can have serious impact. In contrast to the “Green Innovation” scenario, innovation is considered here as a necessity to avert further threats. Environmental consciousness is high, but less focused on preventative measures seen in the “Green Innovation” scenario, but much more on resolving immediate dangers. This is also reflected in the attitude towards new technologies, where everything that might have a chance to improve the status quo is accepted out of immediate necessity. Governmental regulations are high, which is a result of requirement within social democratic and welfareoriented systems to prevent additional social conflicts. 184 / 190
The Leverage Effect of Photonics Technologies: the European Perspective Emergency Demographic driving factors – Negative population growth, due to constraints on immigration – Limited shift towards cities Economic driving factors – Almost closed markets, with strong attention to risks – Stable economy, or even recession – Business strategy on public funding – Relative strong HR on niche markets – Coordination and cooperation is of importance Social driving factors – Focus on communities in stead of individuals – Limited attention to the user needs – Community risks are of crucial importance Technological driving factors – Strong research and innovation in specific areas – Room for radical innovations, but with limited scope – Attention to infrastructure, due to risks Environmental driving factors – Strong attention to environmental crises Political driving factors – Strong involvement of politics to science and innovation – Focus of governmental funding to grand challenges – Many interesting areas are not addressed – Focus on cooperation on research in specific areas The economic prosperity is negatively affected and mastering this scenario gets increasingly challenging as even less economic, natural and human resources are available. In this scenario, innovation means survival setting it apart from the other scenarios. 185 / 190
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