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Higher, Broader, Deeper<br />
ECONOMY<br />
By Kelvin Lau, Becky Liu<br />
RGI rebound signals the likely resumption of long-term uptrend<br />
London narrows the gap with Singapore as the offshore pie expands<br />
We see better CNH liquidity in 2013, leaning against even bigger drainage under the capital account<br />
Our RGI resumes its<br />
uptrend in tandem with<br />
rising market confidence in<br />
China’s recovery and CNY<br />
appreciation.<br />
Higher RGI, broader reach and a<br />
deeper liquidity pool<br />
The Standard Chartered Renminbi<br />
Globalisation Index (RGI) rebounded and<br />
hit a new high of 737 in November, up from<br />
a revised 731 in October (see Figure 1). The<br />
RGI is a comprehensive index that measures<br />
the internationalisation of the offshore Renminbi<br />
(CNH) across markets and geographies.<br />
The improvement in November was<br />
broad-based. We expect growth to continue,<br />
driven by recovering confidence in China’s<br />
economy and CNY appreciation, the continued<br />
expansion of the Renminbi’s global<br />
reach (especially via Renminbi invoicing),<br />
and further policy support.<br />
CNH deposits in Hong Kong<br />
increased in November, driven by stronger<br />
net outflows from the mainland via<br />
cross-border Renminbi trade settlement.<br />
The return and broadening of the CNH<br />
spot premium over CNY likely pushed<br />
onshore firms to make Renminbi trade<br />
payments to – and convert them in – the<br />
offshore market. However, comments<br />
by China Securities and Regulatory<br />
Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing<br />
that the R-QFII quota may be expanded<br />
as much as 10 times are a timely<br />
reminder that the magnitude of net<br />
outflows to China under the capital account<br />
still holds the key to longer-term<br />
CNH deposit growth. We expect total<br />
Figure 1: The RGI has grown more than seven-fold since December 2010<br />
Note 1: An index base of 100 was set for Dec-2010, initially covering Hong Kong only<br />
Note 2: Singapore and London became Eligible Markets and were added to the RGI in Aug-2012<br />
Note 3: Brief pauses in the RGI uptrend in Q4-2011 and Q1-2012 reflect a period of caution and<br />
market consolidation following late Q3-2011 market turbulence triggered by global risk aversion<br />
Source: Standard Chartered Research<br />
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