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F REIGN TRADE - 中国国际贸易促进委员会

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Higher, Broader, Deeper<br />

ECONOMY<br />

By Kelvin Lau, Becky Liu<br />

RGI rebound signals the likely resumption of long-term uptrend<br />

London narrows the gap with Singapore as the offshore pie expands<br />

We see better CNH liquidity in 2013, leaning against even bigger drainage under the capital account<br />

Our RGI resumes its<br />

uptrend in tandem with<br />

rising market confidence in<br />

China’s recovery and CNY<br />

appreciation.<br />

Higher RGI, broader reach and a<br />

deeper liquidity pool<br />

The Standard Chartered Renminbi<br />

Globalisation Index (RGI) rebounded and<br />

hit a new high of 737 in November, up from<br />

a revised 731 in October (see Figure 1). The<br />

RGI is a comprehensive index that measures<br />

the internationalisation of the offshore Renminbi<br />

(CNH) across markets and geographies.<br />

The improvement in November was<br />

broad-based. We expect growth to continue,<br />

driven by recovering confidence in China’s<br />

economy and CNY appreciation, the continued<br />

expansion of the Renminbi’s global<br />

reach (especially via Renminbi invoicing),<br />

and further policy support.<br />

CNH deposits in Hong Kong<br />

increased in November, driven by stronger<br />

net outflows from the mainland via<br />

cross-border Renminbi trade settlement.<br />

The return and broadening of the CNH<br />

spot premium over CNY likely pushed<br />

onshore firms to make Renminbi trade<br />

payments to – and convert them in – the<br />

offshore market. However, comments<br />

by China Securities and Regulatory<br />

Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing<br />

that the R-QFII quota may be expanded<br />

as much as 10 times are a timely<br />

reminder that the magnitude of net<br />

outflows to China under the capital account<br />

still holds the key to longer-term<br />

CNH deposit growth. We expect total<br />

Figure 1: The RGI has grown more than seven-fold since December 2010<br />

Note 1: An index base of 100 was set for Dec-2010, initially covering Hong Kong only<br />

Note 2: Singapore and London became Eligible Markets and were added to the RGI in Aug-2012<br />

Note 3: Brief pauses in the RGI uptrend in Q4-2011 and Q1-2012 reflect a period of caution and<br />

market consolidation following late Q3-2011 market turbulence triggered by global risk aversion<br />

Source: Standard Chartered Research<br />

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