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20 “The whole women thing” 217Nancy M. Reid20.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21720.2 “How many women are there in your department?” . . . . . 21820.3 “Should I ask for more money?” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22020.4 “I’m honored” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22120.5 “I loved that photo” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22420.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22521 Reflections on diversity 229Louise M. Ryan21.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22921.2 Initiatives for minority students . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23021.3 Impact of the diversity programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23121.4 Gender issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233IV Reflections on the discipline 23522 Why does statistics have two theories? 237Donald A.S. Fraser22.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23722.2 65 years and what’s new . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23922.3 Where do the probabilities come from? . . . . . . . . . . . . 24022.4 Inference for regular models: Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . 24322.5 Inference for regular models: Bootstrap . . . . . . . . . . . . 24522.6 Inference for regular models: Bayes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24622.7 The frequency-Bayes contradiction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24722.8 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24823 Conditioning is the issue 253James O. Berger23.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25323.2 Cox example and a pedagogical example . . . . . . . . . . . 25423.3 Likelihood and stopping rule principles . . . . . . . . . . . . 25523.4 What it means to be a frequentist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25723.5 Conditional frequentist inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25923.6 Final comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26424 Statistical inference from a Dempster–Shafer perspective 267Arthur P. Dempster24.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26724.2 Personal probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26824.3 Personal probabilities of “don’t know” . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26924.4 The standard DS protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27124.5 Nonparametric inference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275ix