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616 Never ask for or give advicesummarized nicely by Radhika Nagpal (2013). I say trust the people who tellyou “I have no idea what I’d do in a comparable situation. Perhaps toss acoin.” Of course people don’t say that, they tell you what they’d like to do orwish they had done in some comparable situation. You can hope for better.What do statisticians do when we have to choose between treatments Aand B, where there is genuine uncertainty within the expert community aboutthe preferred treatment? Do we look for a statistician over 40 and ask themwhich treatment we should choose? We don’t, we recommend running a randomizedexperiment, ideally a double-blind one, and we hope to achieve a highadherence to the assigned treatment from our subjects. So, if you really don’tknow what to do, forget advice, just toss a coin, and do exactly what it tellsyou. But you are an experiment with n = 1, you protest. Precisely. What doyou prefer with n = 1: an observational study or a randomized trial? (It’s apity the experiment can’t be singly, much less doubly blinded.)You may wonder whether a randomized trial is justified in your circumstances.That’s a very important point. Is it true that there is genuine uncertaintywithin the expert community (i.e., you) about the preferred courseof action? If not, then choosing at random between your two options is notonly unethical, it’s stupid. And who decides whether or not there is genuineuncertainty in your mind: you or the people to whom you might turn for advice?This brings me to the most valuable role potential advisors can playfor potential advisees, the one I offer when people ask me for advice. I reply“I don’t give advice, but I’m very happy to listen and talk. Let’s begin.” Thisrole cannot be replaced by words in a book like this, or on a website.51.2 Make mistakesWhat if it turns out that you made a wrong decision? I’ll pass over the importantquestion of how you learned that it was the wrong decision, of howyou tell that the other decision would have been better. That would take meinto the world of counterfactuals and causal inference, and I’ve reserved mynext lifetime for a close study of that topic. But let’s suppose you really didmake a mistake: is that so bad?There is a modest literature on the virtues of making mistakes, and I liketo refer people to it as often as possible. Why? Because I find that too manypeople in our business — especially young people — seem to be unduly riskaverse. It’s fine not wanting to lose your money in a casino (though winninghas a certain appeal), but always choosing the safe course throughout a careerseems sad to me. I think there’s a lot to be gained from a modest amountof risk-taking, especially when that means doing something you would liketo do, and not what your advisor or department chair or favorite COPSSaward winner thinks you should do. However, to call it literature might be