Annual Report: - Gorenjska banka

The economic environment and the banking sector
Economic environment
Due to the economic activities standstill in the first half of the year and its downturn in the third
quarter of 2011, gross domestic product rose by only 0.5% in 2011 in real terms. Its value in current
prices was EUR 35,789 million or EUR 17,437 per capita. A slower growth in exports and a lower rise
in investments were of key significance for the modest economic growth.
According to the preliminary data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, exports of
goods were by 12.2 percent higher in 2011 as compared to 2010. The growth in exports slowed
down over the last months of the year, which was mostly related to the moderation in the economic
activities of the major trading partners. Imports of goods rose by 11.2%. The export-to-import ratio
was 92.5 percent.
The value of industrial production was by 3.2% higher in 2011 as compared to the year before. The
increase was entirely accounted for by the growth in the first half of the year. Industrial production
declined in mining (by 10.0%), whilst rising in manufacturing (by 3.2%) and electricity, gas and steam
supply (by 4.7%). The major obstructive factor in manufacturing remains insufficient demand.
According to the last available data of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, the national
registered unemployment rate was 11.9% in November 2011. Data from the Employment Service of
Slovenia indicate that the number of registered unemployed persons grew to 112,754 in December
2011, which is 2.5% more as compared to December of the preceding year.
Consumer prices rose by 2.0% in Slovenia in 2011, a figure similar to those over the three preceding
years. The increase in prices in 2011 was affected by the weak economic activity together with
higher prices of oil and food in the beginning of the year. The average annual inflation rate was 1.8%,
the same as in 2010.
The annual inflation rate as measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices equalled 2.1% in
Slovenia in 2011, in the EMU countries 2.7% and in the EU member countries 3.0%.
The table below illustrate macroeconomic indicators for Slovenia in the 2009 - 2011 periods.
The key interest rates remained low in 2010; the European Central Bank at 1% (last change December
2011), the US Federal Reserve between 0% and 0.25% (last change December 2008) and the Bank
of England at 0.50% (last change March 2009). Due to still weak inflation pressures and despite data
on slow economic recovery, the key interest rate is, as anticipated by analysts, probably to stay at a
record low level well into 2012. In 2011, 6-month EURIBOR increased by 39 basis points.
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Gorenjska banka, d. d., Kranj
Annual Report 2011
Management Report
2011 2010 2009
Gross domestic product, in % (E) 0.5 1.4 (8.0)
GDP per capita, in EUR, current rate (E) 17,437 17,286 17,295
Unemployment rate, ILO, in % (E) 8.1 7.2 5.9
Labour productivity (GDP per hour worked), in % (E) 2.2 4.0 (6.3)
Inflation, annual average, in % 1.8 1.8 0.9
Export of goods and services, in % 7.3 9.5 (17.2)
Import of goods and services, in % 5.5 7.2 (19.6)
Total current account balance payment, in million EUR (E) (192) (297) (459)
(E) – Estimation
Source: Winter forecast economic trends for the year 2011, January 2012, Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia (UMAR);
The Statistical office of the Republic of Slovenia.