Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

MacMillan, 2000), and “20/20 Foresight, Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World” (Courtney,2001). Both suggest “roadmaps” to help managers to embrace uncertainty and define adaptedstrategies. McGrath and MacMillan’s book is more oriented toward entrepreneurship and focuseson “positive uncertainties” (meaning opportunities). Figure 1.1 presents an adaptation of these twoprocesses.Adopt a new mindset to exploituncertaintyDetermine thestrategic issueand define thelevel ofuncertaintyFramepossiblesolutionsAnalyzepossiblesolutions andmake thestrategic choiceAdaptiveexecutionFigure 1.1: Strategy under Uncertainty - General Process1. Adopt a new mindset to exploit uncertainty: Managers should stop avoiding uncertainty,but face it and even capitalize on it. They should stop seeing uncertainty as an enemy buton the contrary exploit and benefit from it. For example, McGrath and MacMillan arguethat managers should act like entrepreneurs, and constantly look for new opportunities.2. Determine strategic issues and define the level of uncertainty: For each strategic issue,managers must consider what is the level of uncertainty that is associated with the questionat stake. This step will be crucial for the continuation of the process. Courtney defines 4levels of uncertainty:- Level 1: the lowest level of uncertainty is so low that the traditional methods thatforecasts can be used successfully.- Level 4: the highest level is that analysis cannot 'bound the range of possibilities',let alone reliably forecast.12