Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

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List of FiguresFigure 1.1: Strategy under Uncertainty - General Process……………………………………………………….12Figure 3.1: Single or Multiple sourcing - Price Vs. indirect costs…………………………………………...…...27Figure 3.2: Purchasing Matrix .................................................................................................................................28Figure 4.1: Origin of Real Option Value………………………………………………………………………...…35Figure 4.2: Managing Real Option Proactively ......................................................................................................45Figure 4.3: Six-Region Option Portfolio Management Framework......................................................................47Figure 5.1: Demand Model - Lattice Tree ...............................................................................................................56Figure 6.1: Optimal Sourcing Strategy According to Disruption Frequency.......................................................59Figure 6.2: Variation in value according to the changes in price from the local supplier...................................61Figure 6.3: Impact of investment costs on the sourcing strategy...........................................................................63Figure 6.4: Added Value thanks to Delay Option...................................................................................................64Figure 6.5: Delay Option: the decision to take a 2 nd supplier depends on demand evolution.............................65Figure A.1: Optimal portfolio quantities as a function of the disruption probability α ...................................838
List of TablesTable 2.1: Supply-Chain Failure Modes...................................................................................................................18Table 3.1: Single sourcing Vs Multiple sourcing: Benefits.....................................................................................26Table 4.1: Most Common Types of Real Options…………………………….…………………………………...34Table 4.2: Binomial Representation of a Call Option and its Underlying….……………………………………38Table 5.1: Firm Profits .…………………………………………………….………………………………………53Table 6.1: Pros and Cons of Different Sourcing Strategies………………………………………………………58Table 7.1: Assumption on Parameter Values……………………………………………………………………...72Table B.1: Parameter Values……………………………………………………………………………………….849
Page 1: Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disr
Page 4 and 5: AcknowledgementsI would like to exp
Page 6 and 7: 4.2.5 Conclusions .................
Page 11 and 12: Chapter 1Introduction.Modern supply
Page 13 and 14: - Levels 2 and 3--between these two
Page 15 and 16: 5. In terms of implementation, Forr
Page 17 and 18: Some articles focus precisely on di
Page 19 and 20: 2.3 Secure the Supply-ChainThere ar
Page 21 and 22: 1) Firms need to build a resilient
Page 23 and 24: at ports and airports and along the
Page 25 and 26: 2.6 Conclusions- Increase the secur
Page 27 and 28: The most adapted approach (single V
Page 29 and 30: suppliers’. The main objective of
Page 31 and 32: Some people continue to think that
Page 33 and 34: For example, there is no market for
Page 35 and 36: 4.1.3 Option ValueJust like a finan
Page 37 and 38: - I0: initial investmentThe problem
Page 39 and 40: Re plicating portfolio in the up st
Page 41 and 42: Let’s consider a portfolio compri
Page 43 and 44: The differential equation is quite
Page 45 and 46: value of the cash flows of the proj
Page 47 and 48: update their option management stra
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 5OptionModeling Dual-Sourci
Page 52 and 53: We will describe the firm’s curre
Page 54 and 55: investment costs are denotedIMainSu
Page 56 and 57: 5.4 Programming on MatlabTo solve t
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Chapter 6Results of the ModelThis c
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uses the main supplier its profits
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drivers - in particular at the time
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what will happen. To hedge this dem
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6.5 Conclusions- Real options allow
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market share from its competitor.7.
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= 0.99 * ($100) + 0.01* (-$200)= $9
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Table 7.1: Assumption on Parameter
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7.2.4 Exploit at maximum real optio
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developed “ a general simulation
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(13) Lee, H.L., Wolfe, M. (2003),
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and Supply Management Course.(38) Z
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to reserve for the future, by maxim
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APPENDIX B: PARAMETER VALUES USED T
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normal or in disruption.The program
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% Probability of going from (m,k,j)
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elsevalue.DecOneNormal=3;end-------
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Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

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