Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

More documents

Recommendations

Info

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- InitialValue Subprogram ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------function [InitValue] = InitialValue(CONSTANTS,TREE,NormalProba,DisruptionProba,InitValueOneNormal, InitValueTwoNormal,InitValueThreeNormal,ValueOneDisruption,ValueTwoDisruption,ValueThreeDisruption,m,k)d_t= CONSTANTS.Tlife_y/CONSTANTS.num_period;---------------------------------------------- INITIAL VALUE MATRIX: 1 SUPPLIER / NORMAL SITUATION ------------------------------------------------------------g=0;InitKeepOne = (NormalProba.P1+NormalProba.P3)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),1,0,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P2+NormalProba.P4)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),1,1,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P1*InitValueOneNormal(m,k+1)+NormalProba.P2*ValueOneDisruption(m,k+1,k,1)+ NormalProba.P3*InitValueOneNormal(m+1,k+1)+NormalProba.P4*ValueOneDisruption(m+1,k+1,k,1))/(1+CONSTANTS.r*d_t);InitTakeTwo= (NormalProba.P1+NormalProba.P3)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),2,0,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P2+NormalProba.P4)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),2,1,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P1*InitValueTwoNormal(m,k+1)+NormalProba.P2*ValueTwoDisruption(m,k+1,k,1)+NormalProba.P3*InitValueTwoNormal(m+1,k+1)+NormalProba.P4*ValueTwoDisruption(m+1,k+1,k,1))/(1+CONSTANTS.r*d_t)- CONSTANTS.OnetoTwo;InitTakeThree=(NormalProba.P1+NormalProba.P3)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),3,0,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P2+NormalProba.P4)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),3,1,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P1*InitValueThreeNormal(m,k+1)+NormalProba.P2*ValueThreeDisruption(m,k+1,k,1)+NormalProba.P3*InitValueThreeNormal(m+1,k+1)+NormalProba.P4*ValueThreeDisruption(m+1,k+1,k,1))/(1+CONSTANTS.r*d_t)-CONSTANTS.OnetoThree;InitValue.OneNormal=max([InitKeepOne InitTakeTwo InitTakeThree]);if (InitKeepOne>InitTakeTwo & InitKeepOne>InitTakeThree)InitValue.DecOneNormal=1;elseif (InitTakeTwo>InitKeepOne & InitTakeTwo>InitTakeThree)InitValue.DecOneNormal=2;elseInitValue.DecOneNormal=3;end94
----------------------------------------- INITIAL VALUE MATRIX : 2 SUPPLIERS / NORMAL SITUATION --------------------------------------------------------------InitTakeOne=(NormalProba.P1+NormalProba.P3)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),1,0,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P2+NormalProba.P4)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),1,1,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P1*InitValueOneNormal(m,k+1)+NormalProba.P2*ValueOneDisruption(m,k+1,k,1)+NormalProba.P3*InitValueOneNormal(m+1,k+1)+NormalProba.P4*ValueOneDisruption(m+1,k+1,k,1))/(1+CONSTANTS.r*d_t)-CONSTANTS.TwotoOne;InitKeepTwo=(NormalProba.P1+NormalProba.P3)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),2,0,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P2+NormalProba.P4)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),2,1,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P1*InitValueTwoNormal(m,k+1)+NormalProba.P2*ValueTwoDisruption(m,k+1,k,1)+NormalProba.P3*InitValueTwoNormal(m+1,k+1)+NormalProba.P4*ValueTwoDisruption(m+1,k+1,k,1))/(1+CONSTANTS.r*d_t);InitTakeThree=(NormalProba.P1+NormalProba.P3)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),3,0,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P2+NormalProba.P4)*profit(TREE.X(m,k),3,1,CONSTANTS)+(NormalProba.P1*InitValueThreeNormal(m,k+1)+NormalProba.P2*ValueThreeDisruption(m,k+1,k,1)+NormalProba.P3*InitValueThreeNormal(m+1,k+1)+NormalProba.P4*ValueThreeDisruption(m+1,k+1,k,1))/(1+CONSTANTS.r*d_t)-CONSTANTS.TwotoThree;InitValue.TwoNormal=max([InitTakeOne InitKeepTwo InitTakeThree]);if (InitTakeOne>InitKeepTwo & InitTakeOne>InitTakeThree)InitValue.DecTwoNormal=1;elseif (InitKeepTwo>InitTakeOne & InitKeepTwo>InitTakeThree)InitValue.DecTwoNormal=2;elseInitValue.DecTwoNormal=3;end95
Page 1:
Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disr
Page 4 and 5:
AcknowledgementsI would like to exp
Page 6 and 7:
4.2.5 Conclusions .................
Page 8 and 9:
List of FiguresFigure 1.1: Strategy
Page 11 and 12:
Chapter 1Introduction.Modern supply
Page 13 and 14:
- Levels 2 and 3--between these two
Page 15 and 16:
5. In terms of implementation, Forr
Page 17 and 18:
Some articles focus precisely on di
Page 19 and 20:
2.3 Secure the Supply-ChainThere ar
Page 21 and 22:
1) Firms need to build a resilient
Page 23 and 24:
at ports and airports and along the
Page 25 and 26:
2.6 Conclusions- Increase the secur
Page 27 and 28:
The most adapted approach (single V
Page 29 and 30:
suppliers’. The main objective of
Page 31 and 32:
Some people continue to think that
Page 33 and 34:
For example, there is no market for
Page 35 and 36:
4.1.3 Option ValueJust like a finan
Page 37 and 38:
- I0: initial investmentThe problem
Page 39 and 40:
Re plicating portfolio in the up st
Page 41 and 42:
Let’s consider a portfolio compri
Page 43 and 44: The differential equation is quite
Page 45 and 46: value of the cash flows of the proj
Page 47 and 48: update their option management stra
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 5OptionModeling Dual-Sourci
Page 52 and 53: We will describe the firm’s curre
Page 54 and 55: investment costs are denotedIMainSu
Page 56 and 57: 5.4 Programming on MatlabTo solve t
Page 58 and 59: Chapter 6Results of the ModelThis c
Page 60 and 61: uses the main supplier its profits
Page 62 and 63: drivers - in particular at the time
Page 64 and 65: what will happen. To hedge this dem
Page 66 and 67: 6.5 Conclusions- Real options allow
Page 68 and 69: market share from its competitor.7.
Page 70 and 71: = 0.99 * ($100) + 0.01* (-$200)= $9
Page 72 and 73: Table 7.1: Assumption on Parameter
Page 74 and 75: 7.2.4 Exploit at maximum real optio
Page 76 and 77: developed “ a general simulation
Page 78 and 79: (13) Lee, H.L., Wolfe, M. (2003),
Page 80 and 81: and Supply Management Course.(38) Z
Page 82 and 83: to reserve for the future, by maxim
Page 84 and 85: APPENDIX B: PARAMETER VALUES USED T
Page 86 and 87: normal or in disruption.The program
Page 88 and 89: -----------------------------------
Page 90 and 91: -----------------------------------
Page 92 and 93: % Probability of going from (m,k,j)
Page 96 and 97: -----------------------------------
Page 98 and 99: elsevalue.DecOneNormal=3;end-------
Page 100 and 101: -----------------------------------
show all

Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?