Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

normal or in disruption.The program builds 6 “value matrices” (OneNormal, TwoNormal, ThreeNormal, OneDisruption,TwoDisruption, ThreeDisruption) that represent the values of the 6 possible states of the firmaccording to the uncertain state (m,k,j).Actually there is a redundancy, as the disruption is represented both in the uncertain state (m,k,j)(the duration of disruption is given at the beginning and knowing the time of last disruption permitsto determine the current state of the main supplier – normal or disruption) and in the firm state. Itwould have been better to consider only three states for the firm representing the different sourcingstrategies (One, Two and Three)We dealt separately with the particular case (m,k,0). The program builds 6 additional “valuematrices” (InitialOneNormal, InitialTwoNormal, InitialThreeNormal, InitialOneDisruption,InitialTwoDisruption, InitialThreeDisruption).The value calculation of each element of the matrixes is done thanks to the function Value (orInitialValue for the particular case (m,k,0)).The function main reproduces the backward algorithm and calculates all the elements of the “valuematrices” starting from the last period until t=0.The function loop allows one to run the function main for different values of the parameters.Also, the function GenNormalProba defines the probabilities of evolution when the situation isnormal and GenDisruptionProba when the situation is in disruption. The function Constantsdefines the values of the different parameters.A small tip to finish. In order to fix the decision process we just need to put the different variablesIMainSupplier− > DualSourcing, ILocalSupplier− > DualSourcing, IMainSupplier > LocalSuppliervery high level.I>−andLocalSupplier− MainSupplierat a86