12.07.2015 Views

Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

4.1.3 Option ValueJust like a financial option, a real option is an asymmetrical asset because it gives its purchaser theright, but not the obligation, to exercise it. The option holder has the possibility to take advantage<strong>of</strong> opportunities without having to cope with unfavorable situations. For example, the holder <strong>of</strong> alease can choose to exploit if the demand for this ore is high, or on the contrary to give upexploiting if other layers <strong>of</strong> better quality, at a reduced cost <strong>of</strong> exploitation, were discoveredmeanwhile. This is what gives value to the option, as also illustrated on Figure 4.1.ProbabilitydistributionOriginal DistributionNew distribution using optionLossesPr<strong>of</strong>itsPut Options permitto avoid big lossesCall Options permit to takeadvantage <strong>of</strong> opportunitiesFigure 4.1: Origin <strong>of</strong> Real Option ValueReal Options match the active way managers operate business and add value as they introduceflexibility that is highly valuable in case <strong>of</strong> uncertainty. In system design for example, real optionthinking is crucial. Engineers are very sensitive to risk minimization, and introduce flexibility inthe design <strong>of</strong> the system so that it continues to work in many different situations.35

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!