Managing Risks of Supply-Chain Disruptions: Dual ... - CiteSeerX

% Probability of going from (m,k,j)/normal to (m+1,k+1,j)/normalNormalProba.P3=(1-CONSTANTS.lambda(1)*d_t)*(1-TREE.step_up_p);% Probability of going from (m,k,j)/normal to (m+1,k+1,j)/disruptionNormalProba.P4=CONSTANTS.lambda(1)*d_t*(1-TREE.step_up_p);---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GENERATION OF DISRUPTION PROBA -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------function [DisruptionProba] = GenDisruptionProba(CONSTANTS,TREE,m,k,j)% Period lengthd_t= CONSTANTS.Tlife_y/CONSTANTS.num_period;NormalProba.dt = d_t;% P1: Probability of going from (m,k,j)/Disruption to (m,k+1,j)/Normal% P2: Probability of going from (m,k,j)/Disruption to (m,k+1,j)/Disruption% P3: Probability of going from (m,k,j)/Disruption to (m,k+1,k)/Disruption% P4: Probability of going from (m,k,j)/Disruption to (m+1,k+1,j)/Normal% P5: Probability of going from (m,k,j)/Disruption to (m+1,k+1,j)/Disruption% P6: Probability of going from (m,k,j)/Disruption to (m+1,k+1,k)/Disruptionif j==0DisruptionProba.P1=(1-CONSTANTS.lambda*d_t)*TREE.step_up_p;DisruptionProba.P3=CONSTANTS.lambda*d_t*TREE.step_up_p;DisruptionProba.P4=(1-CONSTANTS.lambda*d_t)*(1-TREE.step_up_p);DisruptionProba.P6=CONSTANTS.lambda*d_t*(1-TREE.step_up_p);DisruptionProba.P2=0;DisruptionProba.P5=0;elseif (k-j)