Lenin CW-Vol. 23.pdf - From Marx to Mao

177A R T I C L E (O R C H A P T E R) ITHE TURN IN WORLD POLITICSThere are symptoms that such a turn has taken place, oris about to take place, namely, a turn from imperialist warto imperialist peace.The following are the outstanding symptoms: both imperialistcoalitions are undoubtedly severely exhausted;continuing the war has become difficult; the capitalistsgenerally, and finance capital in particular, find it difficultto skin the people substantially more than they havedone already in the form of outrageous “war” profits; financecapital in the neutral countries, the United States,Holland, Switzerland, etc., which has made enormous profitsout of the war, is satiated; the shortage of raw materialsand food supplies makes it difficult for it to continue this“profitable” business; Germany is making strenuous effortsto induce one or another ally of England, her principalimperialist rival, to desert her; the German Governmenthas made pacifist pronouncements, followed by similarpronouncements by a number of neutral governments.Are there any chances for a speedy end to the war?It is very hard to give a positive reply to this question.In our opinion, two possibilities present themselves ratherdefinitely.First, conclusion of a separate peace between Germanyand Russia, though perhaps not in the usual form of a formalwritten treaty. Second, no such peace will be concluded;England and her allies are still in a position to hold outfor another year or two, etc. If the first assumption is correctthe war will come to an end, if not immediately, thenin the very near future, and no important changes in itscourse can be expected. If the second assumption is correct,then the war may continue indefinitely.